Hot Air vs. The TRUTH

Gold broke strongly higher this morning as I was drawing the charts posted above. Nobody is buying the false strength in the US Dollar. The tired game of chasing the Dollar higher on weakness in the Euro is waning. The emperor has no clothes, and his crown is destined to be melted down as scrap Gold as the debt collectors come knocking.

Gold 1134 was the launch point as we pointed out several days ago. Now we must prepare for the CRIMEX goons to redeploy their defenses around the 1145 handle [the MARCH 2010 swing high miss identified in the chart above]. 1161, the January swing high, is the battle ground. A move through there and a major squeeze of the Rat Bastids will commence. As Gold moves further from the breakout at 1134, the more relevant it will become as support. Below that look for support around the 20-day moving average. Gold is poised for a strong move up into May, buy the dips.

Silver broke from it's downtrend at 17.90 and has been held in check near 18 until this morning. With Gold's break higher today, Silver should begin to creep higher and away from the 18 handle. Should the CRIMEX goons succeed in repelling Gold at 1145, expect a retest of the breakout from Silver's downtrend line. 17.60 looks like very solid support for Silver here. Like Gold, Silver is poised for a major mover higher from here into May, buy the dips.

What can be said about the Dollar that hasn't been said already. It is a false prophet, and naked as a jaybird. Only a fool buys the Dollar at these levels as it is NOT a safe-haven. The only thing holding the Dollar above water is hot air, and hot air is billowing out of Washington these days.

Upbeat Signs Revive Consumers’ Mood for Spending
American consumers are finally coming out of hiding.

After months of penny-pinching amid the recession, new figures — showing an improving job market, rising factory output and increased retail sales — suggest that consumers are no longer restricting their budgets to necessities like food and medicine. They are starting to buy clothes, jewelry and even cars again.

The mood has gone from panicked to cautious, and now, as Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com put it, some consumers are “almost a bit giddy.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Upbeat-Signs-Revive-Consumers-nytimes-2012952403.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

More "signs". As I was saying, HOT AIR. I guess Mr. Zandi [is that another way to spell shill?] missed the report that food stamp use by Americans hit an ALL-TIME high in January.

Food stamp rolls break record again
About 39.4 million Americans, the most ever, received food stamps in January, the government said.

The number of recipients was up 22% from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The total of Americans getting the subsidy has hit records for 14 consecutive months.

The national unemployment rate has hovered at 9.7% since January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Beginning Oct. 1, an average of 40.5 million people are expected to get food stamps each month this year, rising to 43.3 million in 2011, according to White House estimates.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-briefs6-2010apr06,0,5967359,print.story

Mr. Zandi, did you miss this brief on job openings? I seriously doubt consumers are "giddy".

Job Openings in U.S. Decrease to 2.72 Million
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Job openings in the U.S. fell in February for the first time in three months, a sign employers will be slow to expand staff even as firings subside.

Openings decreased by 131,000 to 2.72 million, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Fewer people were hired and the number of workers fired also decreased, the report also showed.

“Conditions in the labor market will continue to be tenuous as firms look for a pickup in sales activity before increasing employment opportunities,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “Although labor conditions remain weak, we anticipate further improvement taking hold in coming months as conditions gradually improve.”

Employers in the world’s largest economy added 162,000 workers to payrolls in March, the most in three years, the government reported last week. The figures also showed more people had to take part-time jobs because of a lack of full-time opportunities and the average length of unemployment climbed to a record 31.2 weeks.

Openings fell 4.6 percent in February from a revised 2.85 million in January that was larger than previously estimated.

The rate of job openings in February fell to 2.1 from 2.2 the prior month, according to today’s report. Education and health services accounted for the biggest decrease in available jobs while manufacturers and retailers showed gains in help wanted.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXb8reBRtcJk

I can hardly sit still! I must run out and spend money TODAY!

I need some TRUTH:

Manipulating Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV): A Criminal Naked Short Position that Could Wreck the Economy
By Mark Mitchell
With Maguire’s warning, the regulators were able to watch a crime unfold, right before their eyes, in real time. Then the regulators thanked Maguire by saying, in essence, “you’re a nuisance, go away.” This is not just appalling, but scary, because the criminal activity that Maguire exposed is much bigger than the Madoff Ponzi scheme, and more likely to result in serious damage to the American economy. Indeed, there is a strong case to be made that our national security is at stake. As Maguire stated in a recent interview with King World radio, the manipulators have likely created a massive naked short position that can easily be exploited by foreign entities who might see financial or even political gain in eviscerating the dollar.

Maguire added: “What’s going to happen, if you’re an Asian trader, or a non-Western trader, who has no loyalty, or doesn’t care about homeland security or anything else, who says, now wait a minute, if I can establish in my mind that there is 100 ounces of paper gold, paper silver for example, for each ounce of real silver, than I have a naked short situation here that I can squeeze and they can go on the spot market which is basically a foreign exchange transaction, short dollar, long silver to any amount they want – billions, trillions — whatever they want, and they can take this market, squeeze this market, and blow it up…”

In other words, the problem isn’t just that criminal naked short sellers manipulate the metals market downwards. It is that they have created a condition where a foreign entity can merely demand delivery of real metal to induce a massive “squeeze” that sends the price of metals skyrocketing, putting huge downward pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, says Maguire, with prices rising, “for 100 customers who show up there is only one guy who is going to get his gold or silver and there’s 99 who will be disappointed, so without any new money coming into the market, just asking for that gold and silver will create a default.”

“There are no prisoners taken in this kind of environment,” Maguire added. “All they need to establish is that it is naked, and by the admission of [former Goldman staffer] Christian at the meeting…we have a definition of physical actually being paper…They get that in their heads and its locked, it’s a done deal, then we don’t have to wait…there is a profit to be made here, and there is nothing [anybody] can do about it because it’s a foreign exchange transaction, and there are no limits on a foreign exchange transaction, and obviously foreign exchange transactions are coming to light, there [is talk] of manipulation…”

Indeed, Maguire says that he has received phone calls from wealthy individuals in Asia looking for the go ahead to exploit the naked short position. “The only question they have in their mind is can we establish that this is a naked short position, that’s the only thing they had to clarify, it’s become clear, it is now clear [that the naked short position is massive], and no doubt they do their own due diligence, but basically [the naked short position] has been admitted at the only metals meeting [the CFTC hearing] that we’ve ever had…”

Maguire says that the naked short selling scam is in the trillions of dollars, making it by far the biggest financial fraud in history. He calls it “financial terrorism” and accuses the naked short sellers of “treason” for putting national security at risk. It might be hard to believe that foreign entities are plotting to crush the U.S. economy, and perhaps they are not, but there is no doubt that loopholes in the clearing and settlement system – not just for metals, but also stocks, bonds, Treasuries, and derivatives – could quite easily be exploited by any foreign entity desiring to do harm to the U.S. economy. The only dispute is whether such a desire exists.
http://www.marketrap.com/article/view_article/91207/manipulating-gold-gld-and-silver-slv-a-criminal-naked-short-position-that-could-wreck-the-economy

Will fraud lift gold prices to $10,000/ounce?
By Geena Paul
The CFTC hearing confirmed what GATA has been saying all along, that the gold market is being manipulated. And, how? The gold cartel has accumulated a huge short position and the huge short positions are ‘naked’, which means these positions are not hedged. There is 100-times more paper-gold outstanding than physical gold. You must be saying Oh, My God! Then wait, there is more to it.

Sub-prime crisis was peanuts before this scam. The bullion market is now slowly taking in the impact of these revelations. The result is, there will be no gold in the market. Because, if people ask for physical delivery of gold for their ETFs, who will give all the gold. THERE IS NO GOLD! And the price of gold can be $5,000 per ounce, $10,000 or may be even more. Who can predict the value of a commodity which is not there is the market?

To add fuel to fire The Wall Street Journal wrote: “The objective of this manipulation is to conceal the mismanagement of the US dollar so that it might retain its function as the world’s reserve currency. But to suppress the price of gold is to disable the barometer of the international financial system so that all markets may be more easily manipulated. This manipulation has been a primary cause of the catastrophic excesses in the markets that now threaten the whole world.”

So, the gold cartel now has a big target. It is inevitable that the big traders and hedge funds will push the naked shorts to the wall by asking for physical metal. If there is a squeeze on the naked shorts, the sky is the limit for precious metal prices.

There have been reports that over the past 10 years, the gold cartel has staged a controlled retreat. It has been fighting the advancing gold price with propaganda, paper short sales and the occasional dishoarding of physical metal from central bank vaults and more recently, the IMF. This retreat is about to turn into a rout, which means the upside potential for the precious metals is huge.
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Will-fraud-lift-gold-prices-to-$10000ounce-27107-3-1.html

What if Your Gold Isn't Really There?
By Patrick A. Heller
The London Bullion Market Association contracts emphasize that those who buy gold contracts through it are not really buying gold. Instead, they are becoming an unsecured creditor of the LBMA. In any kind of run to take delivery on contracts, almost all parties will be out of luck.

The efforts by central banks in the Far East and Middle East to remove physical gold from London to fulfill their long contracts must be wreaking havoc for the LBMA. So, if you think you own gold when you own a gold contract in London for physical delivery of gold upon maturity, you probably don’t.

Similarly, those who think they own gold because they own shares of gold or silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) may be in for a huge surprise. GLD, the symbol for the largest gold ETF, uses HSBC as its lead storage company. HSBC is widely considered to have the largest gold short position on the COMEX. It is a possibility, though it would be at least improper if not illegal, that some of the GLD gold holdings may be pledged as collateral against the COMEX short contracts. The prospectus for GLD discloses that shareholders of the ETF are not actually owners of physical metals, but are actually creditors of the fund.

The same problem exists with the largest silver ETF, trading under the symbol SLV. The head custodian is JPMorgan Chase, who holds the world’s largest silver short position. Again, it is possible that some of the ETF silver is pledged as collateral to short commodity contracts, with ETF investors left holding only a claim against the assets of the fund.

If you think you own gold by holding a COMEX contract, don’t hold your breath. The COMEX has adopted several rule changes over the past year to allow the sellers of contracts to deliver shares of an ETF instead of the physical metal. Of course, the COMEX has long allowed contracts to be settled for cash instead of the commodity.
http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=10006

Of course Sprott can't buy IMF gold: There isn't any!
Submitted by cpowell on 12:18PM ET Tuesday, April 6, 2010.
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Give credit to Vince Veneziani of Business Insider for doing something that other supposed analysts of the gold market hardly ever do: put questions to an official source. But in commentary written after he questioned the International Monetary Fund about the refusal of the IMF to sell gold to Sprott Asset Management and its CEO, Eric Sprott, Veneziani seems to think that he has shown Sprott up when he has actually shown up the IMF itself.

"We called the IMF," Veneziani writes, "to get the full story." Full story? In fact, Veneziani got only the IMF's usual evasions and failed to pursue them.

"We spoke with Alistair Thomson, external relations officer at the IMF, who cleared up the matter for us. Here's the breakdown of what he told us:

"The IMF is selling gold only though a qualified agent. There is only one of these agents at the moment and due to the nature of the gold market, they won't reveal who or what that agent is."

The nature of the gold market? Exactly what is it about the gold market and government's meddling in it that requires such secrecy that the "qualified agent" can't be identified? Does the "qualified agent" get commissions or special favors or other advantages from the IMF? As an international agency, does the IMF not have some obligation to be transparent here? Of course Veneziani didn't ask any of these questions. Like most other financial writers, he accepts secrecy as the premise of government.

"The IMF is also phasing out the gold sale and does not intend to dump it all at once because to do so would disrupt markets, which is obviously not their intention."

Oh, obviously, obviously. There must be some reason other than disrupting the gold market -- that is, knocking down the gold price -- for the IMF to issue a thousand announcements and reminders in advance of every gold sale it contemplates.

"Sprott can't buy the gold directly because they [the IMF] do not deal with institutional clients like hedge funds, pension funds, etc. The only buyers can be central bankers and sovereign nations, that sort of thing."

Now why is it that the IMF sells only to central banks and other sovereign agents? Is that international law or something? Isn't Sprott's money as good as anyone else's? Or might Sprott, unlike some central bank, express dissatisfaction in public if he paid for gold and received from the IMF only a gilded certificate or two assuring him that somebody else would hold his gold for him in some place unknown to him?

"The IMF board agreed months ago how they wanted to approach the sale of the gold. Sprott is welcome to buy from central banks who have bought from the IMF, but not from the IMF directly."

Actually, the IMF suggested some weeks ago that it was contemplating making some gold sales on commercial markets as well to central banks. There was much buzz in the gold market about that, but obviously it must have been mistaken, for the IMF wouldn't ever do anything to disrupt the gold market.

"And there you have it. It's simply a matter of protocol and Mr. Sprott not adhering to it."

Yes, simply a matter of protocol. The protocol is that the IMF never puts itself in a position that might disclose that it has no gold at all, might disclose that the IMF has only the most tenuous claim on the gold reserves of its members and that its supposed gold transactions are really only bookkeeping entries whose primary purpose is indeed to spook the gold market.

Veneziani's inadvertent exposure of the IMF is headlined "Sorry, Eric Sprott, There's No Way You're Buying Gold From The IMF" and you can find it at Business Insider here:
http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-sprott-gold-imf-2010-4

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc

Playing Chicken With The Chinese

It’s possible the economy is commencing a powerful new upturn, but why should it? One third of the country lives off food stamps, one quarter of the country has negative equity in their homes and one sixth of the country can’t find a job. Each of these statistics is a record – or close to it.
-Eric Fry, The Daily Reckoning

Why Else Would Anyone Lend the Feds Money or Back their Health Care Bill?
by Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning
We are expected to believe six impossible things before breakfast, and another half dozen before lunch.

"...the current rebound in the economy is a statistical mirage," writes David Rosenberg. It is "orchestrated by record amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus that are simply unsustainable and actually risk precipitating a very unstable financial and economic backdrop in coming years."

But investors and voters seem willing to believe anything. Why else would anyone lend the feds money...or back their 2,400-page health care 'reform' bill?

We're expected to believe that the same feds who couldn't see the subprime fastball coming...

..and who struck out completely when they started to get overleveraged curve balls coming their way (they thought derivatives made the system more stable!)...

..have now hit a home run, with the bases loaded.

Yes, we're expected to believe that the bad news bears - Bernanke, Summers, Geithner et al - have now won the World Series...by not only preventing a depression...but putting the economy back on track for growth and prosperity.

And now the feds are going to improve the whole system of health care, too. And we're expected to believe that the $1 trillion program will not cost us a cent...and that the deficit will actually go down...that insurance companies will charge less...that doctors and nurses will work harder...that cripples will walk...that the blind will see...and that even teenagers with acne will suddenly have peachy-perfect skin.

We're also expected to believe the Greek's debt problems have gone away (thanks to a deal cut with the Germans)...and that America's debt problems never even existed.

Why else would so many people lend the US so much money at such low interest rates?

Yes, dear reader, the crisis of '07-'09 gave us a fright. But it's all behind us now. How do we know? We just read the paper!
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner033110.html

“Let me get this straight. We’re going to be gifted with a health care plan written by a committee whose chairman says he doesn’t understand it, passed by a Congress that hasn’t read it but exempts themselves from it, to be signed by a president who also hasn’t read it and who smokes, with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn’t pay his taxes, to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese, and financed by a country that’s broke. What the hell could possibly go wrong?”
-origin unknown

Interest rates rise on further signs of growth
NEW YORK (AP) -- Interest rates rose Monday in the bond market on fresh signs the economy is continuing its slow, steady recovery.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose note briefly touched 4 percent for the first time in intraday trading since June. It hasn't ended the day above 4 percent since before the credit crisis erupted in late 2008. The yield is often used as a benchmark for consumer loans.

Monday's yield on the 10-year note was its highest since October 2008 when it hit 4.09 percent. That came just before the credit crisis peaked and investors bought up safe Treasurys, sending yields plummeting. The yield fell as low as 2.06 percent by December 2008 before slowly starting to recover.

Treasury yields have been rising recently because of weak demand at new auctions and continued signs of economic growth. Yields typically rise and prices fall when the economy improves because investors will pull money out of safe, government-backed bonds and opt for riskier investments, like stocks, that have the potential for bigger returns.

Inflation also typically increases when the economy is strong, so Treasury yields and interest rates must move higher to keep pace.

The government auctioned $8 billion of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, Monday. The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.43, much stronger than the demand seen for TIPS in January and February. Demand for the notes can climb when inflation is a concern since it protects investments from rising prices.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Interest-rates-rise-on-apf-3333141941.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Treasury appetite seen waning
Allan Robinson
The price of 10-year U.S. Treasuries has fallen sharply during the past five days as investors eye a heavy week of government bond auctions – but the rise in yields can also be viewed as a positive omen.

This was the seventh time in 10 months that the 4-per-cent threshold has been challenged, said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.

Some attribute the rise in the yield to recent U.S. government bond auctions, which indicate investors may be becoming fatigued and are losing their appetite for Treasuries. Some are concerned about rising U.S. debt levels, and that's pushing prices down and yields up.

This week should be another good test of that thesis. Today, the U.S. Treasury will auction $40-billion (U.S.) in three-year notes, followed by the sale of $21-billion in 10-year bonds tomorrow and $13-billion in 30-year notes on Thursday. However, there is a bright side.

“The data show that the economic recovery has momentum and the Treasury market is starting to price that in,” said Michael Pond, an interest-rate strategist for Barclays PLC, told Bloomberg News.

“It's a potent combination of an economic recovery and fiscal concerns all at once,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist with TD Securities Inc. “The 4-per-cent level has come sooner than expected. But our view is that there will be an upward trudge [in yields] over the next year.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/at-the-bell/treasury-appetite-seen-waning/article1524096/

The only thing growing in this economy is the noses on the faces of government officials touting a "recovery". That, and the growing risk of debt default from coast-to-coast. Interest rates are NOT rising because of new "signs" that the recovery is gaining momentum, that is pure financial news media pablum. Interest rates are rising because the supply of US Treasury debt is overwhelming demand. $82 BILLION of new debt comes to market just this week alone.

April 15 is not only Tax Day, it was supposed to be the day the US Treasury released its report on global exchange-rate policies. That report has been postponed. Suspicions abound as to why it has been "delayed". My suspicion is that it DOES name China a currency manipulator, but the US Government is hopeful that China will decide "on their own" to allow their currency to rise.

I suspect that the "failed" bond auctions two weeks ago were a "coded message" by the Chinese inferring that if the US Government names China a currency manipulator it could have serious implications for the US Treasury Bond market going forward. Interest rates over the past ten days have risen to a tipping point with the 10-year bond again flirting with the 4% yield line. China has pushed Washington's back to the wall, and now we wait to see who will blink first. A currency war is already ongoing, and threatening to escalate. The USA owns a printing press, but the Chinese own the nukes in this war.

Summers Says ‘Dialogue’ Reason for Exchange-Rate Report Delay
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said delaying a report to Congress that would include determining whether China manipulates its currency will allow the U.S. to better gauge the Asian nation’s progress in pursuing more balanced trade and global growth.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner yesterday said the U.S. will postpone a scheduled April 15 report on global exchange-rate policies. The Obama administration is facing demands from Congress to label China as a currency manipulator for keeping the value of the yuan little changed from about 6.83 to the dollar for almost two years.

“It’s being delayed because that’s part of our international economic dialogue directed at supporting the crucial issue for job creation, doubling our level of exports and that depends on what other countries do,” Summers, director of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, said today in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” program.

Summers, 55, said today on CNN that three upcoming international meetings, including economic discussions with China, are “where we’re going to be pursuing these issues with a great deal of vigor over the next several months.”

Geithner said April 2 that Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit April 12-13, along with a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors this month and a U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue scheduled for May, will offer “the best avenue for addressing U.S. interests at this time.”

“No one can be satisfied with where we are,” Summers said about the overall U.S. trade gap. “This is going to be a continued focus for us going forward. We’re focusing on increasing our exports.”

Senator Arlen Specter, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, said he was disappointed by Geithner’s decision.

“I’m not too happy about the delay,” Specter said on Fox News Sunday. “We have a real problem with the Chinese. They are very shrewd and customarily, they outmaneuver us. They take our jobs. They take our money and then they lend it back to us and own a big part of America.”

The Treasury secretary is betting that China will take steps in coming months to strengthen its currency, making Chinese-made goods more expensive and allowing U.S. companies to become more competitive.

“These issues of China and other countries of treating the U.S. as the ultimate importer and not taking our products are issues we are totally committed to addressing,” Summers said on CNN.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-04/summers-says-dialogue-reason-for-exchange-rate-report-delay.html

White House: Iran not why currency report delayed
WASHINGTON — The White House denies any connection between delaying a report on China's currency policies and seeking China's cooperation on new penalties against Iran for its nuclear program.

The report to Congress was due April 15 — just as China's president comes to Washington for a nuclear security summit.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Saturday he was delaying publication because several high-level international meetings in the coming months would be a better way to advance the U.S. position.

White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers tells ABC's "This Week" that the Iran matter isn't causing the delay and that those meetings are a good way to have a direct dialogue with the Chinese.
http://www.ajc.com/business/white-house-iran-not-432387.html

Yuan revaluation "China's choice": Geithner
NEW DELHI/BEIJING (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he was confident that China would see that it is in its own interest to make the yuan more flexible, while Beijing stoutly defended its currency policy.

Geithner, who said global economic recovery "looks quite strong now," also said on Tuesday it was "China's choice" whether or not it revalues the yuan.

"As I said before and I'll say it again, but I want to make sure I am repeating myself, I am confident that China will decide it's in their interest to resume the move to a more flexible exchange rate that they began some years ago and suspended in the midst of the crisis," he told India's NDTV.

In Beijing, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman and two government economists held out the prospect of the yuan being allowed to resume its rise after a 20-month pause but said at separate briefings that China would proceed with caution and on its own terms.

"We don't want to see our exchange rate kept unchanged," said Zhang Yansheng, director-general of the Institute for International Economic Research, a think-tank under the National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful planning agency.

Making the yuan more flexible was a challenging task, not least because of a lack of hedging instruments in China and domestic companies' lack of experience in handling a fluctuating exchange rate, the economist said.

With U.S. unemployment near 10 percent, President Barack Obama is under pressure from Congress to persuade Beijing to allow the yuan to appreciate.

Geithner over the weekend decided to delay a report on whether China manipulates its currency, pledging to work instead through the Group of 20 economies and other multilateral meetings to press for more currency flexibility.

Earlier on Tuesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said China never manipulates the yuan and rejected the argument that a firmer yuan would reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China -- indicating that Geithner's decision may not have eased tensions over the issue.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/It-is-Chinas-choice-to-rb-4147197131.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Its a dangerous game of currency chicken now. If the US wins, China revalues the yuan, and the Dollar falls. If China wins, the Chinese continue selling US Treasury Debt, and the Dollar falls. The big winner in this currency war ultimately will be Gold.

Keep Spreading that Sunshine Baby

Over the long Easter Weekend we were bombarded by the ever government faithful financial news media with headlines touting a "surge" in jobs growth in the month of March.

March payrolls surge by 162000, US says

March job surge prompts more optimism in outlook

March jobs surge lessens pressure on struggling national economy

US Stock Futures Gain as Employers Add Most Jobs Since 2007

To say there was a "surge" in jobs growth in march would be quite a stretch. Trickle up would have been more accurate, and even that description would be a stretch. Let's take a quick look "inside" those 162,000 "new" jobs:

48,000 "new jobs" were TEMPORARY Census Taker jobs created by the US Government. In effect, these were not jobs at all.

82,000 "new jobs" were the result of the Labor Departments ongoing phantom jobs program know as the Birth/Death model. With this model the Labor Department creates jobs out of thin air. [read more here: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm ]

After subtracting the temporary government jobs and the fake jobs we are left with a net gain of ONLY 32,000 jobs.

Oh hallelujah! A SURGE in jobs growth! Puh-leeeeze!

Following up on their vigilant reporting of this "surge" in growth of American jobs, the financial news media chose to use this "news" to explain Global Market developments:

Oil rises above $85 as US jobs market improves The Associated Press

Oil price up amid jobs joy in US BBC News

Oil Surges to Highest Level in 17 Months on U.S. Jobs Report San Francisco Chronicle

Asian shares advance on US jobs market recovery The Associated Press

US Jobless Data Gives Asian Shares a Lift New York Times

Asian markets rise amid signs US poised for growth Las Vegas Sun

All of this giddiness on a gain of 32,000 jobs in the US economy? I pity the fools. If you believe the headlines you'd think America was going to lead the Global Economy back to new heights tomorrow. Not a chance.

Of course the Oracle of Orwell had to chime in and take credit for this "surge" in new jobs, and the government sponsored news media wasted little space promoting this illusion:

In NC, Obama Hails Jobs Report New York Times

Obama credits economic policies for March jobs picture Washington Post

Obama Says US Is Beginning to Turn the Corner, Produce Jobs BusinessWeek

All this blah-blah over a pipsqueak gain of 32,000 jobs? A dubious gain at that, as the number comes from a "survey" of ONLY one third of all US employers. Yes, the revered and highly touted monthly non-farm payrolls report is the result of a phone survey. It as guesstimate that is given far too much credibility than it deserves. And here's why:

The improvement is due to fewer reductions in jobs, not gains in new hiring. Small growth in jobs may be a whole lot better than continued steep drop-offs, but the picture is not as Rosy as the headlines would have you believe.

Number Of Long-Term Unemployed Continues To Rise, Sets Another All-Time High
While the increase in jobs over the past month provides hope that the economy's nascent recovery will continue to blossom, one troubling trend in Friday's monthly employment report continues to put a damper on the recovery.

As of last month, more than 6.5 million Americans have been without a job for at least six months, an all-time high, according to Labor Department data. That's more than double the amount this time last year.

Of the more than 15 million unemployed Americans, nearly 44 percent have been without a job for at least six months -- another all-time high.

The negative trend among the long-term unemployed belie the view that Friday's figures were overwhelmingly positive.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said "the economy is definitely getting stronger" during a Friday interview with Bloomberg Television. Christina Romer, chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, said the employment report is "the most positive jobs report we have had in three years."

But Robert Reich, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley and former Labor Secretary under President Bill Clinton, was much more pessimistic.

Reich wrote on his blog:

"Since the Great Recession began, the economy has lost 8.4 million jobs and failed to create another 2.7 million needed just to keep up with population growth. That means we're more than 11 million in the hole right now. And that hole keeps deepening every month we fail to add at least 150,000 new jobs, again reflecting population growth."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/02/number-of-long-term-unemp_n_523321.html

Not a pretty picture, is it? The Oracle of Orwell pretended not to notice and only focused on the "amazing jobs growth" in the march payrolls report. The Oracle does concede that they have a "long ways to go" on improving employment, and continued to blame the Bush Administration for the problem:

'Long way to go' in taming US joblessness: White House
We've got a long way to go. We've inherited a terrible situation, the most pressing economic problems since the Great Depression in our country," Summers told CNN television's "State of the Union" program.

Summers called efforts to bring down the high unemployment, which has been stuck for months at 9.7 percent, the "preoccupation" of President Barack Obama's administration.

"There's a great deal we've got to do, and we've got to do it with all of the energy that we can," Summers said.

"It is the president's preoccupation to put people back to work," he said. "That's what the legislation he signed into law -- to give incentives to businesses to hire people who've been out of work -- was all about.

Summers also cited a raft of legislation in the pipeline, to "channel credit to small business, to protect the jobs of those on the front lines, teachers and policemen, to make investments" -- all with an eye towards job creation.

He told ABC television's "This Week" program, meanwhile, that after months of grinding recession and a stalled unemployment rate, he "expects the trend to be upwards" in the US economy.

But Summers suggested the path toward economy recovery may not be smooth, warning that "the numbers could fluctuate."

Christina Rohmer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, took a more sanguine view of the economy, hailing what she called "good, solid employment growth."

"I anticipate we'll continue to see positive job growth as we go forward. What I'll be focusing on is, how big does it get," she told NBC television's "Meet the Press" program.

"The fact that the unemployment rate stayed constant this month at some level is pretty amazing," she said.

"There's been a tremendous increase in the labor force," Rohmer added.

"Over the last three months we've added more than a million people to the labor force. That's a great sign. That's a sign that people that might have been discouraged dropped out because of the terrible recession, have started to have hope again, and are looking for work again."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hjeubkcY4Y7ftEF2ByaL-eBOumxQ

Sounds like the Oracle is hedging it's bets, just in case employment stubbornly refuses to improve. This dear readers is known as "talking out of both sides of your mouth". It is an acquired skill, and is mandatory if one seeks a career in politics. And what is Chritina Rohmer smoking? Apparently it never rains in Rohmerville. Get this girl a breath mint, there is diarrhea spilling out of her mouth. Sign, sign, everywhere a sign...

Hey Christina, maybe you could spread a little sunshine on these poor long-term unemployed souls whose benefits just expired:

The Senate Lets Unemployment Benefits Expire
Today -- April 5 -- is not a good day for people who've been out of work more than six months. That is because the U.S. Senate failed to extend the federal program of Unemployment Insurance benefits before leaving for a two-week Congressional recess, even though the program was scheduled to expire on April 5 -- a week before they return.

So here it is, April 5. In the next week, more than 212,000 jobless people will lose unemployment benefits because the Senate failed to act, according to an analysis by the National Employment Law Project. The Senate leadership, which tried to take up the extension, has said they will make the benefits retroactive when the Senate finally acts. That is undeniably a good thing, but in the week or two people will be without their $300 - $400 weekly benefit checks, it's likely that some will run out of food. Some, once denied benefits, will not understand that they are only temporarily ineligible, and may not come back to seek assistance after Congress acts.

The latest unemployment figures are a painful reminder of why the federal benefits are so badly needed, and why letting the program expire is simply shameful. The federal program picks up where state benefits leave off, covering people who remain out of work after their state benefits run out (usually after 26 weeks). The number of long-term unemployed has been growing month after month, and grew by a stunning 414,000 in March. There are now 6.5 million people jobless for more than six months; their proportion of all the unemployed has now grown to 44.1 percent. The jobs picture showed some signs of improvement in March, but it will be years before we get back to where we were before the recession. If we abandon the jobless now, their loss of income will put the brakes on the economy just when we need to accelerate. And it is a pretty nasty thing to do, besides.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deborah-weinstein/the-senate-lets-unemploym_b_525147.html

Keep spreading that sunshine Christina... The jobs picture couldn't look any brighter without it.


Gold and Silver broke higher this morning as the equity markets rose in reaction the the "surge" in jobs in March, and the bond markets continued their set up for a collapse. The CRIMEX goons sprang quickly into action as Gold stuck it's nose above the 1130 handle and Silver tested 18. We remain focused on 1134 in Gold and 17.90 in Silver as closes above these numbers will indicate possible breakouts and pending short squeezes in these Precious Metals.

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Strong Dollar Policy: Could It Be The Greatest Financial Fraud In History?

Information overload, my brain is saturated. The CFTC hearings on position limits in Precious Metals on March 25, 2010 have been more revealing than the Gold and Silver communities could have ever hoped. What for years has been thought of merely as a collusive price suppression scheme by the bullion banks and western government, may be far more heinous and systemically debilitating than anyone could have ever imagined.

We are all by now aware of the JPMorgan whistleblower, who back in February exposed to the CFTC JPMorgan's Gold and Silver manipulation. Andrew Maguire, answering his guilty conscious, and going public with his knowledge of JPMorgan's CRIMEX fraud has drawn back the curtain on what may one day be called the greatest crime against humanity ever perpetrated.

All the pieces to the puzzle of the Gold and Silver price suppression are beginning to come together now, and the picture being revealed is one of high treason with major national security risks involving countries, banks and government leaders. Robert Rubin's "strong Dollar" policy may, in the end, be a neutron bomb that ultimately destroys the World Monetary System, and our way of life.

Mainstream news media refuses, at this time, to touch this story of What Could Be the Largest Fraud in History. King World News has two interviews that I urge you to listen to in their entirety...if you haven't listened to them already. The CRIMEX goons cover has been blown, and the CFTC may be powerless to take action against the criminals involved. The nation's financial fate may rest with how the resolution of this fraud is handled by US Government regulators, or ignored by them.

Please listen:

Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas: Discuss What Could Be the Largest Fraud in History - Andrew is an independent metals trader turned whistleblower at the center of a storm for exposing what could be the largest fraud in history involving countries, banks and government leaders. Adrian Douglas Board of Director from GATA, the man who Andrew reached out to joins in this interview where they discuss a fraud so extraordinary and so unimaginable that it is the kind of thing that only happens in hollywood thrillers. They also discuss the CFTC sponsored meeting on metals which was an unmitigated disaster because it additionally exposed the fraud on a grander scale.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/3/30_Andrew_Maguire.html

GATA
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
In this interview with GATA we continue the saga after just having interviewed Andrew Maguire, the whistleblower out of London. This gives a short and long-term view down the rabbit hole through the eyes of 3 of the GATA board members. GATA was so heavily involved not only in breaking the news at the CFTC meeting about the the metals manipulation but also at the same time quite possibly uncovering the largest fraud in history. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee was organized in January 1999 to advocate and undertake litigation against illegal collusion to control the price and supply of gold and related financial securities. The committee arose from essays by Bill Murphy, a financial commentator, and by Chris Powell, a newspaper editor in Connecticut, published at Murphy's Internet site, lemetropolecafe.com. In this GATA Roundtable we will have Bill Murphy, Chris Powell and Adrian Douglas.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/3/31_GATA.html

King World News also has a brief new interview with John Williams of Shadowstats.com. John discusses some of the financial calamities that may be heading our way because of the "strong Dollar" policy and the recent passing of Obamacare. A very sobering discussion:

John Williams
Saturday, April 3, 2010
In this interview John discusses looming hyperinflation, gives an astounding prediction on future unemployment and also discusses some surprising inflation adjusted price possibilities for both gold and silver and much more.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/4/3_John_Williams.html

MATT TAIBBI's latest Wall Street expose for Rolling Stone magazine hit the streets recently. This may be his most scathing rebule of Wall Street bankers yet. Perhaps we could enlist his pen to bring the TRUTH about JPMorgan's Precious Metals fraud to mainstreet.

Looting Main Street
MATT TAIBBI
Posted Mar 31, 2010
How the nation's biggest banks are ripping off American cities with the same predatory deals that brought down Greece.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street

Joking Around On April Fools Day

Today, while looking up "other things", I came across something else: The video clip from Saturday Night Live posted above. On a day of jokes and pranks, I thought it might be fun to share it with you. I found it worth my time to LMFAO for a couple minutes, and it made my day. I hope you find it equally hilarious, and share it with friends and family who might need a giggle ahead of the long weekend.

And now the news:

Initial Jobless Claims Slip for Fifth Consecutive Week
Amid concerns about a jobless economic recovery, initial claims for unemployment benefits in March slipped to 439,000, marking their fifth consecutive weekly decline, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The number came in slightly better than the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected new jobless claims to drop to 440,000.

For the week ending March 27, the initial jobless claims fell 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 445,000. (That week's figure was revised up from 442,000.)

Planned US job cuts up in March vs Feb -Challenger
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose in March, although planned job cuts for the first quarter were down sharply from a year ago, a report on Thursday showed.

Employers announced 67,611 planned job cuts last month, up from 42,090 the previous month, according to the report from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The first-quarter total of 181,183 layoffs, however, is 69 percent lower than the 578,510 announced in the first quarter of 2009.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSNYS00787920100401

No Hiring Surge Yet: Private Sector Shed 23,000 Jobs in March
The private sector lost roughly 23,000 jobs in March, a slightly smaller decline than the 24,000 nonfarm jobs lost last month, according to the ADP employment report released on Wednesday. (The February loss was revised up from 20,000 jobs.)

The drop represents the most modest loss of jobs lost since employment started falling in February 2008, but it's still a disappointing figure given that economists expected the private sector to add 40,000 jobs during the month. Some estimates were even more bullish -- ranging from 80,000 to 130,000 new were even more bullish -- ranging from 80,000 to 130,000 new jobs created in March.

The number could indicate that private-sector job creation isn't in our immediate future, but there's also some hope that ADP data may lag the economy.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/no-hiring-surge-yet-private-sector-shed-23-000-jobs-in-march/19421118/

Geithner: Disparity in recovery 'deeply unfair'
WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday it's "deeply unfair" that some financial institutions that got taxpayer-paid bailouts are emerging in better shape from the recession than millions of ordinary Americans.

He acknowledged public outrage over that and said people watched with disdain as Washington protected the banks and investment houses whose risky bets caused the crisis, even as the national unemployment rate was soaring to double-digit levels for the first time in a generation.

But in a nationally broadcast interview, Geithner also argued that President Barack Obama had no choice when facing a financial crisis but to support then-President George W. Bush's "unpopular" bailout plan.

Geithner said the other option was to "stand back" and do nothing, "and that would have been calamitous for the American economy."

Geithner said in Thursday's interview that administration officials are "very worried" about recovering the more than 8 million jobs lost in the recession. He said the unemployment rate of 9.7 percent is "unacceptably high."

He said that economic recovery will take "a long time," despite signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector and other bright spots.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i2Rvbv1J7z6cHV_l3BDb3qGpRUewD9EQGRCO1

Did Little Timmy Geithner just say the "economic recovery will take a long time"? Now that is news! Timmy, what happened to the "jobless recovery"? The Chinese get the joke. Americans not only get the joke, but have been grabbing their ankles for almost three years now. Has the administration finally realized there can be NO RECOVERY without jobs?

Don't get too giddy over good jobs report
Friday, the Labor Department will release March employment data, and economists have been optimistic the economy is finally gaining jobs and the recession has ended.

The consensus forecast, based on surveys of economists taken at the end of last week, is for a 200,000 jobs gain in March. The economy shed 36,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 9.7 percent.

The ADP estimate for private sector jobs creation, released Wednesday, indicated a 23,000 loss, but that estimate does not include government workers and does not always track more comprehensive Labor Department estimates of private employment.

Government employment-boosted by temporary census jobs-should play a big roll, but most private economists have been looking for private employment to be growing again.

Either way, the pace of private jobs creation won't be enough to restore the economy to good health quickly.

The Great Recession destroyed 8.4 million.

To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 150,000 jobs a month to accommodate adult population growth, reentry of discouraged workers and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including the latter two groups, unemployment is closer to 20 percent than the 9.7 percent headline figure.

Overall, the economy must add more than 13 million jobs to bring unemployment down to 6 percent by the end of 2013. With state and local governments facing tough financial constraints, the private sector must add at least that many jobs to accomplish the task.

Accounting for productivity, population growth and labor force reentry, the economy and private business sector must grow at better than 3 percent a year to bring unemployment down, and that is a tough challenge.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fridays-Job-Report-Not-Good-cnbc-2749313199.html;_ylt=AnMvaqGJDTg1u9A.VKjKKZC7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1Y25icG1rBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNkb250Z2V0dG9vZ2k-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Economists estimate that employers added around 190,000 jobs in March, in what they hope will be the start of consistent payroll gains. If they are right, it would mark the biggest jobs gain in three years and only the second month since the recession started in December 2007 that the economy actually added jobs.

The desperation of the administration regarding jobs growth is obvious. The way "temporary Census Jobs" has been touted by the financial news media as having a positive impact on jobs growth in March is beyond pathetic. When these jobs disappear, will they be used to "explain away" a renewed increase in job losses?

According to the Census Bureau, 181k people are expected to be hired from January through to March. At least a third of those people already filled their positions in the first 2 months of the year, leaving approximately 60-80k new hirers. Between April and May, another 800k people are expected to be hired. Nearly all of these jobs are temporary because once the census survey is finished, these workers will no longer be needed. As a result, the real NFP number in March, which excludes census hiring is probably half of what will be reported.
http://www.nasdaq.com/newscontent/20100401/us-dollar-optimism-ahead-of-payrolls-.aspx?storyid=20100401_3107_fx360

Making excuses that the ADP number doesn't include "government workers" to make the case that non-farm payrolls will rise despite the losses in the "private sector" is worse than pathetic. Economic recoveries DO NOT spring from an increase in government jobs. Economic recoveries can only be spawned by jobs growth in the private sector. And they most certainly can not be hatched from a nest of TEMPORARY Census Taker Jobs.

I fully expect the non-farm payrolls number tomorrow to come in "less than expected" and subtracting the census workers the "real" jobs number to be half of that. Any jobs growth should be a negative for the US Dollar judging by today's reaction to a decrease in jobless claims, but then in these rigged markets, "you never know".

Gold broke sharply higher today on the Dollar's weakness. Silver soared. It is interesting to note that since 6PM est last Thursday, following the CFTC hearings and GATA's announcement of a whistleblower on the JPMorgan manipulation of Silver on the CRIMEX, Silver has been all up rising as much as 1.46 per ounce since.

Gold closed today, and for the week, above key near-term resistance at 1122. This opens the door for a test of the neckline of the broad Reverse Head & Shoulders consolidation we noted in our chart posted on Saturday, March, 27. The neckline of this developing pattern has now fallen to 1134 from 1137, and is now our target. A break of this neckline has the potential to launch a major short squeeze and send Gold to new all-time highs as April is a seasonally strong month for Gold.

With a close above key resistance at 17.60 this week, and a break of the downtrend line off the early December high, Silver now has the potential to trigger a major short squeeze that could see Silver peak above 20 by mid-May.

As always, we remain on guard against further attacks on the Precious Metals by the CRIMEX goons, but the tables could be turning on these Rat Bastids as the music may be about to stop on their wicked game of musical chairs in the futures pits in New York.