Wednesday, March 7, 2007

GOLD: The Big Picture

Another "correction" in the gold market sends the gold bugs scattering like cockroaches on the kitchen floor at midnight when the refridgerator light hits them. Panic and fear once again rains on the goldbugs parade. Is this "over reaction" warranted? Hardly. Too often, we allow the daily "noise" in the gold market to spook us and force our eye off the "big picture". What's the big picture? The long term trend in gold...a trend that is today supported by solid fundamentals: A recognized top in the US Dollar, Declining trust in US paper assets, Bullish general commodity markets, Deficits of the US Budget/Current Account/Trade Balance, and a recognized top in the US Treasury Long Bond. So much of today's analysis of gold focuses on the "daily" charts, and not enough on the weekly charts, aka The Big Picture. The Big Picture that the weekly charts offers us is one that smooths out all the noise in the daily gold trade. Take a good look at a weekly chart of gold here: Focus on the 50 week moving average, the RSI, and the MACD. The sky is not falling, and the end of the gold bull is not even in sight. As a matter of fact, gold is probably closer to the end of the begining of it's bull market, than it is the begining of the end of its bull market. In relation to the big picture, think of gold as going on sale last week...and with a close over 653 the sale will soon be over. Trade the daily noise...The Big Picture is there to remind you that the trend is your friend. Buy those dips.

Daily Gold Resistance: 656 / 663/ 670

Daily Gold Support: 642 / 627 / 612

Weekly Resistance: 688

Weekly Support: 50 week moving average

Good Read:

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