Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Speculator vs. Investor: The Battle has Begun

Iraqi Kurds call on Turks to seek 'peaceful' means against rebels

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq: Kurdish officials warned on Wednesday that any Turkish incursion into northern Iraq would threaten the relative stability of the region and called on Ankara to seek peaceful means against violence from separatist rebels.
The Turkish parliament authorized the military to carry out a cross-border offensive against Kurdish rebels in Iraq. But an incursion was not expected immediately as Turkey came under increasing pressure from Washington and Baghdad to use restraint.

Sell the news... Oil has reached a full froth, it's cup runneth over. Speculators in Oil futures can smell their profits now,...many have tasted them already. Wednesday's crude inventories report showed a rise in supplies. I suspect a near-term top in Oil has been achieved.

The assembly in Turkey's capital of Ankara backed the motion by 507 votes to 19, Parliament Speaker Koksal Toptan told lawmakers. An Energy Department report today showed that U.S. oil, gasoline and heating-oil supplies rose last week.

``The Turkish vote has scared traders,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``The doomsday scenario is that things will spiral out of control and lead neighboring countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia to become involved. This isn't likely but it encourages people to be long oil.''

The measure passed by Turkey's parliament allows Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to authorize one or more military assaults within a year. The U.S. has urged Turkey to stay out of northern Iraq, a relatively calm area of the country.

This Week In Petroleum - Fundamentals vs. Speculation
from the Energy Information Administration

On October 16, 2007, the near-month futures contract price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, set an all-time nominal record of $87.61 per barrel. This was the culmination of nearly nine months of an upward trend that saw WTI crude oil prices rise by $35.68 per barrel from its yearly low of $50.48 per barrel on January 18th (see chart below). Despite these gains, however, current crude oil prices still lag inflation-adjusted levels from the early 1980s. While crude oil prices often fall at this time of year following the end of the peak driving season, the combination of several recent developments has contributed to sustain the rally in WTI and other benchmark oil prices to record nominal highs despite U.S. inventories that remain just above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Several questions have once again arisen in face of rapidly rising oil prices, the first of which is the degree to which speculation has driven the upward trend. At least as important is the question of turning points – how much higher will oil prices rise and how far may they fall if oil markets soften, in, at least, the near-term, following recent end of year patterns.

The EIA website is a fascinating stop for you web browsers. If you have the time please visit.

It is amazing the effect "speculators" can have on the commodities markets. The Gold and Silver markets are excellent examples of this as well. The current record high of shorts in Gold futures is evidence of that. The difference between the two markets however is the developing confrontation between the speculators in Gold and the investors in Gold. It is the growing number of investors in Gold that are putting growing pressure on the speculators. You can see this by the strength the Precious Metals now show overnight these days as opposed to the neutral posture we have witnessed in the past. Big moves in the metal, until recently, had been pretty much confined to the games at the COMEX in NY. Now we are beginning to see big movements in the physical markets for these metals overseas each night. This is a signal that the "investor class" is waking up to Gold's value. And it is the investor class that will drive Gold to new all-time highs in the months ahead as the second phase of this secular Bull market in Gold gains traction. The investors in Gold are dem Rat Bastids worst enemy. They buy and hold. And dem Rat Bastids can't profit from their relentless shorts if nobody sells them their Gold when they look to cover their shorts [asses].

The Yen today closed just shy of 85.88, and actually cleared that level intra-day. The Dollar held 78 for the fifth day in a row and Oil appears that it may have topped for now. The shorts are looking to get out from under their current losses break even or at best tiny profits now. The kitchen sink is no longer attached to wall, and may come flying at the Gold Bugs any time now.

A big reaction in Gold and Silver is becoming less likely as each day passes. The shorts would love to get back to the beginning around 745, and hope to book some profits they should have taken on that quick visit to 720. In Silver, the shorts are not as desperate as those in Gold, but will benefit from any weakness that may develop there. Look for opportunities to reload your long positions in Gold should prices drop below 745. Look for opportunities in Silver below 13.46. I suggest using buy stops above the market, and ratchet them down should the market retreat in an effort to catch the bounce back up. Trying to catch the bottom in a market like this may result in not catching it at all. AND, should dem Rat Bastids concoct one more take down in the metal, you will avoid getting in and going down with the market. The bias in Precious Metals, long-term, is clearly to the upside...the goal now should be re-establishing positions at a price...not catching the bottom.

No comments:

Post a Comment