Friday, August 31, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
The money goes almost entirely to commercial bankers, most of whom are running away from the mortgage markets as fast as their legs will carry them.
MacroMarkets LLC Chief Economist Robert Shiller said the declining residential real estate market "shows no signs of slowing down."
Sunday, August 26, 2007
“I asked Chairman Bernanke if he would use all the tools available to him and he said, Absolutely,” said US Senator Christopher Dodd on Aug 21st, after a meeting with Paulson and Bernanke, the top commanders of the “Plunge Protection Team” (PPT). “Historically the federal funds rate has tended to follow movements in the discount rate,” Dodd added, alluding to the PPT’s most potent weapon.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The Dollar, floundering all day, as the obvious becomes as plain as the nose on a bond traders face...inflation is coming! As the Fed pumps ever more Dollar sewage into an overflowing sea of liquidity, bond holders are quickly realizing that treasuries are not the safe haven they seek. Gold and Silver are the only assets that will float to the top of this sea of filth the Fed has unleashed across the globe. But the Vermin of the COMEX are determined to prevent that. They continue to hold, and push them under the sea. And like a beach ball, they will soon explode to the surface and launch skyward. In the future, as Gold and Silver rocket higher day by day, we will look down and thank the fallen Vermin for giving their lives to ensure our destiny.
It really was a pathetic day. Gold and Silver, obviously treasured overseas, are mugged and kicked to the curb by the Villains on Wall Street...AGAIN. These Rat Bastids know full well the lies that these two precious metals are fighting to expose: Deficits DO matter, Inflation is NOT under control, the housing meltdown is NOT contained, and the US Dollar is a worthless piece of crap. ...just to name a few.
We'll try again tomorrow, and the next day and the next. The demand for Gold and Silver is rising by the hour. Selling pieces of worthless paper on the COMEX will NOT, in the end, prevent the inevitable. The paper pushers are only buying time now. Putting off the Day of Reckoning for another day. Toying with our minds, by affecting "price", but not demand. Real buyers, real investors thank them for yet another extension of the Sale of the Century. Buy yours now, there won't be much if any to buy later.
In Gold today, former resistance at 658 held as support. We expected resistance at 663/664, but not the bitch slap we received. Silver of course took the most abuse today. This little guy has one helluva score to settle with these Rat Bastids. Watch again tonight as Silver rises in the dark to once again haunt this scum come sunrise. We'll be looking for a close to end the week above 11.80. I don't know about you, but I'm getting tired of the ping-pong match between 11.47 and 11.95.
And for the last word this week we seek the razor pen of Jim Willie.
Desperate Measures for USFed
Jim Willie CB, http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1187884800.php
The US financial system is teetering. Its USDollar currency is losing global support, with some outright revolts in crucial territories. The chief private sector export from the US financial sector has been fraud-ridden asset-backed bonds and their toxic credit derivatives. What should anyone expect? For years an institutional dishonesty within all things financial in the United States has been engrained, spreading, and become integrated with high levels of the USGovt. The Wall Street hucksters exported fraud. The backlash might be more severe than the soft soap gurus anticipate. Look for an international boycott. The shock waves in the US financial markets are preliminary symptoms of bigger events soon to come. Stability identified is nothing but quiet between tremors.
YOU DEFINITELY WANT TO READ THE ENTIRE ESSAY.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Mexico's state-run Pemex oil company abandoned its offshore oil rigs just ahead of Hurricane Dean, evacuating more than 18,000 workers and shutting down production in its main oil-producing region.
Temporarily closing the 407 undersea wells that feed the rigs in Campeche Sound will mean a production loss of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, the company said. Of that, about 1.7 million barrels of oil a day is exported from three Gulf ports, where Pemex loaded the final tankers on Monday.
Operations also were being suspended at Pemex's huge "Floating Production Storage and Offloading" vessel, which can store 2.2 million barrels of oil. Pemex bought it last year.
"This will be the first test of the storm-worthiness" of the vessel, said George Baker, a Houston, Texas-based energy analyst who follows Pemex closely.
Pemex produced an average of 3.2 million barrels a day of crude oil in the first six months of 2007, of which 2.6 million barrels a day came from its offshore deposits.
Mexico was the United States' second-largest source of foreign petroleum products in May, the latest month for which statistics were available, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
The U.S. imported 1.6 million barrels of petroleum a day from Mexico in May, down from 1.7 million barrels in May 2006. The 1.6 million barrels was slightly more than Saudi Arabia's exports to the United States but well behind Canada's 2.5 million barrels.
Pemex's largest single source of crude oil is the Cantarell complex of oil fields, which is one of the world's biggest. The smaller Ku-Maloob-Zaap oil complex is located nearby, also directly in Dean's path. Together the two facilities produce more than 50 percent of Pemex's crude oil output.
Despite the threat to Pemex's facilities, oil prices dropped Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on expectations Dean would spare key U.S. refining facilities in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Six of the 834 manned oil and gas platforms along the U.S. Gulf Coast have been evacuated, the U.S. Interior Department's Minerals Management Service said yesterday. That's shut about 1.8 percent of the Gulf's 1.3 million barrels of daily oil production and 0.7 percent of the region's natural gas.
Okay, let's look at the math and try and figure out WHY oil prices have dropped because US gulf oil production, which is smaller daily than Mexico's, will not be disrupted by Hurricane Dean. By the way, Hurricane Dean is a Category 5 hurricane now.
Mexico's closing of gulf oil wells will shut in 2.7 million barrels of DAILY production. That is 1.4 million barrels MORE a day than the US produces from the gulf. ...but Oil prices went down? Mexico closed it's ports that export 1.7 million barrels of Oil each DAY. The US imports 1.6 million barrels of Oil from Mexico each DAY. ...and the price of Oil went down? 2.7 million barrels of Oil are disappearing from world supply...their future unknown until the storm passes...and the price of Oil went down?
But a thug pulls a gun on an Oil worker in Nigeria, where a mere 700,000 barrels of Oil a DAY has been shut in, and the price of Oil soars? What is wrong with this picture I ask...
Gold and Silver continue to flounder with the rest of the World Markets as some of the dust settles from last weeks crisis. Uncertainty is an understatement, and markets HATE uncertainty. Though Gold and Silver are supposed to blossom amidst market uncertainty as they are supposed to be "safe havens". Demand, rising 'monetary' inflation, and seasonality all point to higher Precious Metals prices going forward. I'll take a turtles pace over last weeks debacle any time.
At this hour Gold is trying to navigate through 658...this is paramount if Gold is to move higher. Silver continues to flounder and awaits guidance from it's big brother Gold. Gold has been consolidating near 658 since the "big bounce" last Friday morning. A break through will most likely find resistance at 663/664 and then 670.
Silver would do well just to get back over 12. It will find many mountains to climb once it does, beginning at 12.28 and then 12.57. I would be overjoyed just to see Silver close above the 20 hour moving average at 11.72 today. Silver opened strong Monday morning and got swatted at 11.95, Fridays bounce high. That is the mountain we face today.
I'll post up now at 8AM as Silver has now joined Gold in the green column.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Global demand for gold hits record US$14.5bn
Global demand for gold jewellery has reached a record US$14.5bn, 37% higher than the second quarter of 2006 with particular strength across the key global gold markets, according to figures released by the World Gold Council (WGC).
On the other hand, net retail investment increased by 51% in tonnage terms to 132.9 tonnes and 60% in dollar terms reaching US$2.9bn, compared to Q2 2006.
Where industrial demand is concerned, the second quarter of 2006 saw a slight increase of 2% in tonnage terms to 116.5 tonnes; and 9% up in dollar terms to 2.5bn, a new quarterly record.
In the Middle East and GCC region, demand saw a 20% increase to 97.5 tonnes higher than the depressed levels of the same quarter in 2006 (jewellery demand increased by 21%, net retail investment increased 9%).
Global Gold demand rising, coupled with today's incendiary inflation potential, Gold may soon be the ONLY "safe" investment on the planet soon.
The Panic of 2007
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
John Mauldin's most recent essay is a must read to find an understanding of today's global credit crunch.
"More important than the symbolic 50 basis point cut in the discount rate was the move in today's FOMC statement from the semi-neutral bias of the last few months ('semi' as inflation was still their predominant concern until recently) to a clear easing bias today. Essentially today the Fed telegraphed a certain Fed Funds rate cut at the September meeting and possibly more cuts in the months ahead.
"The statement was very clear in signaling an easing bias and a policy cut ahead: 'Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth forward. The statement also pointed that 'the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably.' And it clearly signaled that the FOMC is 'prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.'
"The stress on the downside risks to growth and the failure of the statement to even mention the 'I' word (Inflation) suggests that, in about a week since the previous FOMC meeting, concerns about inflations as the predominant risk have faded and concerns about growth have sharply increased. For a Fed that until recently was in the soft landing camp (slowdown of growth but still moderate pace of growth) today's statement is a signal that they are starting to worry about a hard landing of the economy.
"For the first time in over a year the Fed is now implicitly admitting that they underestimated the downside growth risk: until now the official Fed view was that the housing recession was contained and bottoming out and not spilling over to other sectors of the economy; and that the sub-prime problems were also a niche and contained problem. The sudden shift to a strong easing bias suggests that the Fed miscalculated until now the damage to the economy and to financial markets of the housing recession and its real and financial spillovers."
Fundamentally, economically, and seasonally Gold is "t-minus any day now" for an explosion thru the $700 barrier and an assault of 4-figures. The flight will be bumpy, but a a flight it will be...a flight to safety that is.
658 remains the key to Gold at this hour. The bulls must recapture and hold 658. We're going nowhere until they do.
Silver has a long ladder to climb. The first rung is at 12.90. Followed by 12.07, 12.28 and 12.57. 12.57 could prove to be a bloodbath for the shorts in Silver. 12.57 is the support that gave way and led to the demise of many Silver Bulls last week. I look forward to payin dem Rat f***king Bastids back shortly.
Chins up folks. Nothing worth having or achieving should be easy. We'll appreciate it more, if we rise above the pain. And at this hour we are the Phoenix.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
So what do we do? We get right back on the horse, and attack these SOBs. They WILL be destroyed. Everything that's occurring globally to the financial system of the planet all but guarantees the imminent ascent of Gold AND Silver to the stratosphere and beyond. The Fed in the end will have to SLASH interest rates at the behest of the power base in Washington. This will crush the Dollar. Crush it I tell you. The absolute destruction of the US Economy is upon us all here and now. Unless the Fed throws Wall Street a bone, our children are destined to grow up in a third world country.
Laugh if you must. Gold and Silver "should" be vaulting in an environment such as we've seen the past two weeks. If things are so bad that the "money of last resort", Gold and Silver must be sold simply to raise cash, then things are perilously serious at this very hour. What we have witnessed today is absolutely shocking. It's time to back up the truck people. Folks should be selling everything they own to buy Gold and Silver now...NOT selling their Gold and Silver.
Relatively, Gold has held up quite well in the face of this carnage. Silver has been the victim of blatant criminal activity. I suggest buying Silver on the way back up, and forget about catching the bottom. Attractive buy opportunities may be found along the mountain face as we climb back up it. They are: 12.11, 12.33, 12.58. These numbers all represent old support, that has now become new Resistance. Breaching them one by one should build momentum as we scale the mountain.
Gold's volatility may persist a while longer, or end just as abruptly as it tanked this morning. They key to Gold is 658. Old support, now new resistance. Regain and hold 658, and the mountain top launching pad at 700 is back in site. Moving forward in time only lowers the price at which the downtrend line off the May 2006 730 high will be breached. Today that price is 679.
I got as screwed as the rest of our community today...but I remain firmly committed to the inevitable ascension of Gold to it's rightful place as The World's Real Money. And it's little albino brother, Silver, following in it's footsteps. In a sea of liquidity, only "real" money floats to the top.
Traders had worried that Dean, bearing down on the Caribbean from the central Atlantic, could damage oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf, cutting supplies. Dean is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.
"The storm is on a projection for a path to stay pretty much south, there's less likely to be great damage, so it's seen as less of a threat to markets," said Tobin Gorey, a commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
What does a commodities hack from Australia know about Atlantic Hurricanes? Dean won't even enter the Gulf until Monday at the earliest. Hurricanes have minds of their own and seldom follow the "projected path". I will suggest that by Next Tuesday they will tripping over themselves to buy Oil contracts. And I will boldly predict that Hurricane Dean will smash Galveston Texas.
The storm concerns on Wednesday overshadowed a U.S. weekly government report that showed larger-than-expected declines in oil and gasoline inventories last week, but an increase in refinery activity that was in line with expectations. The decline in crude inventories supported higher oil prices, though the rest of the report was viewed as largely neutral, analysts said.
In its inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said refinery utilization rose 0.5 percentage points to 91.8 percent of capacity in the week ended Aug. 10, in line with the expectations of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Refinery utilization fell by a surprise 2.3 percentage points the previous week.
Crude oil inventories fell 5.2 million barrels last week, the EIA said, and gasoline inventories dropped 1.1 million barrels. Analysts had expected crude stockpiles to fall 2.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories to fall 400,000 barrels.
Supply and Demand. That's the bottom line for all commodities. Unfortunately Gold and Silver have been lumped into the commodities arena. Too "risky" to hold in these ever increasingly inflationary times, both Gold, and particularly Silver, are getting bashed around in the markets by fools that have lost the monetary respect for them.
Gold demand surged in Q2, recent market turmoil to underpin price - WGC
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Reduced price volatility and robust Indian buying lifted global gold demand in the second quarter, said the World Gold Council.
In an interview with Thomson Financial News, Jill Leyland, the Council's economic advisor also said current worldwide financial turmoil will serve to underpin prices further as investors rush into safe haven assets, like gold.
Global demand in tonnage terms, which refers to physical buying, rose 19 pct to 922 tonnes in the April to June months compared with the same period a a year ago. Demand from India, the world's biggest physical market, accounted for 317 tonnes of the total amount.
In recent weeks broader financial markets have collapsed largely because of defaults in the US sub-prime mortgage lending sector and on fears of a credit crunch. Gold was one of the first commodities to fall as players sold the metal off in a bid to raise cash to cover losses elsewhere. Investment into the metal as a safe haven asset caught gold's fall, however.
'A lot of people misunderstand gold as a safe haven and expect it to react immediately,' Leyland at the WGC told Thomson Financial News. 'It's more of an insurance people buy when they are worried.'
Prices are currently hovering around 665 usd and, while lower than the near 700 usd level gold has flirted with several times this year, they remain well supported by safe haven investment flows.
'You don't get an immediate response because people will be running to cash in, the gold price has been jerked around a bit but it's pretty stable,' said Leyland.
Other experts agree, with UBS (nyse: UBS - news - people )' John Reade just this morning noting that 'the longer this credit crunch goes on, the more likely that gold will attract safe haven buying,' adding he expects the credit crunch to continue.
On the physical side, seasonal demand is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter, after the summer lull and amid Christmas, Diwali and Eid festivals which could spur buying.
And that's the bottom line. Gold and Silver may not look pretty today, but they're likely to be the Belles of the Ball come Fall. It goes beyond frustration to watch the action in the Precious Metals as this sub-prime contagion infects the World's financial Markets. All "should be" rising rapidly. The fact that they are not perhaps is an indication of just how truly serious this financial crisis is. If people are forced to sell their Gold to raise cash, as many have suggested, then things must be really be bad...as in a lot worse than we are being led to believe by the media. But for every seller there is a buyer. You can be sure a few Indians are lined up to buy as you read this.
Yesterdays CPI numbers were a hoot. Anybody that believes them probably lives in a cave. One number that got lost in the maelstrom of bad news yesterday was the TIC report. The monthly TIC net flows decreased to $58.8 billion in June, down from $107.3 billion in May. This is significant because the June Trade balance was -$58.14 billion. Uncle Sam was able to keep his checkbook in the black by ONLY $660 million. The TIC [Treasury International Capital] report measures the flow of money out of the US vs. the flow of the money in. When the money coming in falls short of the money going out, Uncle Sam has Insufficient Funds in his account, and he can't pay his bills. Of course, I guess with his connections he could just print up some, but I think you get the picture...Interest in investing in America is on the wane. And in light of this credit crisis that was manufactured on Wall Street and endorsed by the Federal Reserve, I doubt many foreign investors are going to be rushing to Uncle Sam's Bank to make a deposit in the future.
Gold and especially Silver are looking ugly at this hour. The Yen is on one hell of a banshee train run up right now. I like many of you am a bit dismayed at all this, but remain resolute in my belief that everything occurring now is ultimately going to make Gold the overlord of all currencies. This mega move up in the Yen is definitely causing a lot of selling in Gold, just as a mega move up in the Dollar would here. This is why Gold has been weak overnight the past two nights. The Japanese have been selling as the Yen has risen. The Dollar looks particularly weak against the Yen today as it has come back down some over night. If this drift in the Dollar continues into the trading day today, perhaps this slide in the Precious Metals will abate. Predictions now would be foolish. We must let the chips fall where they may. You're either in, or you're out. I'm in 'till they throw me out kicking and screaming.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
A low-pressure system in the south-central Gulf of Mexico could form into a tropical depression ``at any time'' tonight or tomorrow, and coastal areas in its path may not have much warning, the hurricane center said in its outlook at 5:30 p.m. Miami time.
LOL! Hurricanes are nothing to laugh at, but these Oil traders are buffoons. That's right, I said BUF-FOONS. A blind man could have seen this coming. Here are two valuable sites to have bookmarked:
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Latest Satellite Imagery, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
I look at these two sites every morning from the first of August thru mid-October. A casual look at the satellite photos of the Gulf yesterday showed the makings of a tropical depression plain as the sun in the sky. It was no shock to me to learn today that a "storm" may be springing from the Gulf itself as I type this. And at this hour, what was yesterday a "ball of counterclockwise clouds" in the southern Gulf now covers almost all of the Gulf. This baby could wind up in a hurry.
Recall yesterday, Oil traders were convinced that Tropical Depression Four was not a threat to the Gulf and sold off their morning futures bids. These storms are ALWAYS quite unpredictable. This morning it became a named storm, Dean. At 11AM it was projected to bend northward towards the East Coast. By the 5PM update it was projected to go south of Cuba towards the Gulf. ...And the price of Oil is rising.
Gold...Silver...lame. Actually the fact that the two were quite firm today relative to the "strength" in the US Dollar has to be somewhat heartening. The Gold stocks again succumbed to the nonsense on Wall Street. Jeez, I swear I heard some talking head telling us yesterday that the markets were now "back to normal" after the central banks flooded the world with "liquidity". LOL...I have a hunch it will be a long time coming before these markets resemble anything "normal" again. And the longer they're paralyzed, the better for both Gold and Silver. Patience people, patience...our time is close at hand. The mother of all short squeezes is closer at hand than many would have you believe.
It was a short squeeze in Precious Metals that began the week of August 7, 2005 that launched Gold through it's $450 Gold Cartel capping saga and launched it to the May 2006 high at $730. It IS going to happen again. This $500billion cash injection into the World Economy will see to that. $700 Gold will fall once again, and dem Rat Bastids will be set to the curb with the rest of the Wall Street trash.
Again the Dollar was up today on "false strength" created by an ECB/US Fed currency swap that has been knitted together in the hopes that it will snare the subprime contagion that has been loosed upon the World by the villainous greed mongers on Wall Street. Do you get the sense that the trap isn't working? This monster is bigger than ALL the central banks coffers combined. There are suggestions that this "derivative deathstar" has been pumped up to the tune of $500trillion. That's Trillion with a "T". The central banking clowns couldn't print money fast enough if they tried to buy that out. Folks, the US Economy is a meager $3trillion annually. ...Ain't gonna happen. Financial Armageddon is approaching at light speed...and Luke Greenspan is retired.
Wholesale Inflation Up Sharply in July - (AP) A big jump in energy costs pushed inflation at the wholesale level up sharply in July. However, outside of energy, price pressures were moderate.
LOL, "outside of Energy"... Give me a break. NOTHING and NO ONE is immune to rising Energy prices. The CPI numbers out Wed. morning should prove that.
Oh look! The trade deficit was $2billion less than the previous month. Let's have a party! Wake up dumb asses! The trade deficit was $58BILLION dollars...there is NOTHING good about that.
The Commerce Department, in a new report, said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June by 1.7%, suggesting the economy expanded around 4% or even higher in the second quarter, and will probably grow more than economists had thought in the third quarter.
The trade deficit shrank to $58.14 billion in June, the department said. A $9.4 billion surplus in the service sector offset a $67.5 billion deficit in goods trade. May's deficit was revised down by just under $1 billion. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118709362608997144.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Lies, Lies, and more lies. I am sick to death of all the lies. How does $9.4billion equal $67.5billion? Must be that American Math. I hear they use sub-prime numbers...
A close above 673 Gold should kick start an assault on the downtrend line at 682. Support at 663 then 658. There is too much uncertainty right now for there to be much downside risk in Gold. Silver is at Golds mercy, and it's 50 day moving average [now at 12.91 and falling]. Rising Oil prices should keep the metals firm this week. All the central bank hand outs have definitely put a floor under them. Should a hurricane ravage the refining capacity of the United States once again, it will take more than Fed handouts or an emergency interest rate cut to save the American Economy...much more. Unfortunately for us all, there is nothing more.
Save yourself! Buy Gold and Silver today!
Investors braced themselves for further turbulence and speculation is mounting that the
Sunday, August 12, 2007
The Fed Primes The Pump
Gold will be the beneficiary of these MASSIVE liquidity injections. Gold was at $250 an ounce when money was last pumped into the system at this rate following 9/11. It has since risen 168%. Sadly, this current injection makes the 9/11 injection look like chump change. If Gold rose 168% from today's $670 an ounce price we would see Gold at $1795 an ounce. And that's a conservative guess...and I doubt it will take another 6 years to put in that 168% gain.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Sunday, August 5, 2007
During the recent stock market rally investors ignored some very disturbing underlying economic fundamentals. Therefore, the current weakness in the market is not in conflict with the fundamentals, but completely consistent with them. Unfortunately for the overall economy, the re-assertion of fundamentals is not exclusive to the stock market. Here is a look at what will likely happen to other asset classes and our economy should investors refuse to blindly follow the Pied Pipers of Wall Street:
Gold responded by rising $8.10 to $672.70 and silver jumped $0.14 to $13.09 to make Friday a great day. The pros have finally realized that the elitists’ attempts to control all markets is not working well anymore and that the Fed had not only been lying about inflation but they had no intention of trying to correct it.