Tuesday, May 27, 2008

BEEP! BEEP! BEEP!







The Bullshit Detector was working overtime today:

U.S. Economy: Confidence Falls as Home Values Decline
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among American consumers fell in May to the lowest level since 1992 as the two-year housing slump showed no sign of bottoming.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 14.4 percent in March from a year earlier, the most since the figures were first published in 2001. Separate figures from the Commerce Department showed sales of new homes were the second-lowest since 1991 in April.

Sales of new homes increased 3.3 percent in April after readings for the prior month were revised lower, the Commerce Department's report showed. The April sales pace was an annual 526,000 homes, compared with a 509,000 rate in March that was the lowest in 17 years.


BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! BULLSHIT DETECTED!


Sales of new homes increased 3.3% in April? Uh, not exactly. As a matter of fact...NOT AT ALL. March new home sales came in at 526,000, but were revised down to ONLY 509,000 with the release of the "new" April numbers. The April numbers reported today by the US Census Bureau were annualized at 526,000. THE SAME NUMBER THAT WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED FOR MARCH! So by revising the March numbers down by 3.3% to 509,000, the US Census Bureau miraculously created a 3.3% "increase" in new home sales. If that isn't BULLSHIT, I don't know what is. And the worst part of the deception is that the knucklheads on Wall Street bought it hook, line, and sinker. LOL, even with the deception new home sales were the SECOND LOWEST since April 1991.

So we combine "no increase in new home sales, the home-price index down 14.4%, and consumer confidence at a 17 year low and we get a rising Dollar? More BULLSHIT! The Dollar was up, once again, mainly on weakness in the Euro caused by a surprise decrease in German consumer confidence. The Dollar most certainly was not up because of an "increase" in new home sales. And it was not up because of a small drop in Oil prices.

Oil Falls More Than $3 as Record Prices Curb U.S. Fuel Demand

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell more than $3 a barrel in New York, the biggest decline since April, on signs that U.S. fuel consumption is dropping because of a slowing economy and record energy prices.

``There's trepidation at these price levels,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``High energy prices are having a substantial impact on the economy and potentially on demand.''

``After failing to break through $135 decisively last week, it appears we've put a resistance line there,'' Flynn said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYydTP6TrHqo&refer=home


"Signs" that US fuel consumption is dropping? Signs? So what if it is dropping. I'm pretty certain the Chinese will be more than happy to pick up the slack and use what we don't. When are the anal-ysts going to wake up to the FACT that the world economy and energy consumption no longer revolves around the US.

Resistance in Oil prices at $135? I guess the same could be said about $115, $120, $125, and $130. All numbers that have fallen by the wayside as Oil relentlessly climbs higher. Yes, Oil is ripe for a correction, but just because it is doesn't mean that it will. And so what if it does. Are you going to tell me that Oil at $108 is going to help the US avert a recession? If so I have but one answer for you. BULLSHIT!

And now for our #1 BULLSHIT detection of the day. The whack job done on Gold and Silver over at the NY COMEX. Western government can cry all they want to about "speculators" running up the price of Oil, but the real crimes being committed in the futures markets are in the Precious Metals pits in New York. Not only was today's take down in Gold and Silver completely unwarranted, it was blatantly contrived. And I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the drop in Oil prices was contrived by futures traders in New York today as well. All at the behest of the US Government and their stooges at Goldman Sachs. The 10-minute Gold chart posted above will show you that the hit on Gold began exactly the moment the NY COMEX opened for trading this morning. The Precious Metals were relatively firm all through yesterday's holiday and overnight in Asia and Europe.

As sad as the take down was, particularly in Silver, it wouldn't surprise me if we closed the week up in the Precious Metals. If nothing else, it is another great buying opportunity! The US Dollar is going nowhere fast. The only question left to answer now is which will get to the basement first: The Dollar or the Dow?






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