Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Don't Be Fooled

From the bullshit detector we find the following in today's headlines:

Home construction jumps 10.5 pct in August- AP
Home construction increased last month and applications for building permits also grew. The gains were driven mainly by apartment and condominium construction, not the much larger single-family homes sector.

Clearly the headline is used to deceive. Actual "home" construction grew by only 4%.

Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics, said the high number of vacant homes, mounting expectations of renewed price falls and economic constraints on households will continue to weigh on the industry.

"Homebuilding activity remains at an astoundingly weak level," Dales said, adding that construction has to be more than double current levels for the market to be considered healthy.

Nothing has changed...

Ah, the wonders of the rigged Precious Metals markets continues. The Dollar is again weaker today, struggling to keep it's head above 81 on the US Dollar Index. The Euro is up big on the news of successful bond sales in Ireland, the Japanese Yen is up, and the Chinese Yuan is up. Yet the Precious Metals flounder as the LMBA and the CRIMEX print more paper to stifle their rise in price, and protect the Fed ahead of their meaningless interest rate announcement this afternoon.

Certainly Silver is overbought on it's daily chart, but in very short supply. Gold is somewhat less overbought, but in equally short supply... A pause in their advance in price is warranted, but unlikely to result in a "correction". Some consolidation in price appears evident, before prices move higher.

Support in Gold kicks in first at $1268, and $1260 and $1245 below that. Silver is testing support at $20.55 this morning, and has support below here at $20.30 and $20. Both of these precious Metals are in strong bullish posture on their weekly charts and should be bought aggressively at support.

Recession Officially Ended in June 2009- AP
The longest recession the country has endured since World War II ended in June 2009, a group that dates the beginning and end of recessions declared Monday.

Yeah, right... And Santa Claus is real. More bunk released into the headlines in the hopes that voters will bite on President Obama's plea yesterday to follow his path to economic recovery.

Obama defends econ effort, pleads for voters' help
"Something that took ten years to create is going to take a little more time to solve," Obama said.

"Even though economists may say that the recession officially ended last year, obviously for the millions of people who are still out of work, people who have seen their home values decline, people who are struggling to pay the bills day to day, it's still very real for them," Obama said.

The group assembled for the session included large and small business owners, teachers, students and unemployed people.

A woman who said she was the chief financial officer for a veterans' service organization told Obama, "I'm exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the mantle of change that I voted for, and deeply disappointed with where we are right now."

"Is this my new reality?" she asked.

Obama told her, "My goal is not to convince you that everything is where it ought to be. It's not." Still, Obama said that things were "moving in the right direction" under policies he has put in place.

Republican Party chief Michael Steele panned Obama's TV performance. "Once again, President Obama trotted out the same old worn-out reassurances on the economy, but Americans are still waiting for the promised recovery that never arrived," Steele said.

A 30-year old law school graduate who said he couldn't find a job and couldn't even make interest payments on his student loans told Obama he was inspired by Obama's 2008 campaign but "that inspiration is dying away."

"The most important thing we can do right now is grow our economy," Obama said. "What we can't do is go back to the same old things we were doing."


The same old song and dance from a President unqualified to lead a horse to water, let alone a country drying up and blowing away under his stewardship. November can't get here soon enough.

Gold and Silver Are Sounding The Alarm

The Battle for $21 Silver Begins
By James Turk
September 18, 2010 – There is a battle beginning as silver approaches $21, its highest price in 30-years. There is a lot at stake.

Those who are short silver don’t want their losses to become any bigger than they already are. On the other side of the trade, everyone who is long silver wants to see silver appreciate to a fair market value.

This new battle beginning as silver nears $21 is no different than those that have been fought many times over the past decade. When a resistance level is reached, the shorts have repeatedly ‘circled the wagons’ in an attempt to keep silver from climbing higher. They will probably do it again.

Nevertheless, given that silver has risen from $4.03 early this decade to Friday’s close of $20.79, it is obvious that the shorts have not been successful over the long-term. But market battles are fought day-to-day and even hour-to-hour. Plenty can happen in the short-term to cause one to take their eye off-the-ball, but don’t let it happen. Instead always focus on the long-term...


Gold Market Update[SMART READ]
By: Clive Maund
In recent days many commentators proclaimed that gold and silver have "broken out", but THIS IS NOT TRUE, so what is the current situation?

In the last update we looked at both the bullish and bearish case for gold and silver, what you might otherwise call the best and worst case scenarios. Some interpreted this as fence sitting, but it was no such thing - it was dispassionate pragmatic analysis the result of which is that we won't get caught by surprise whatever happens. However, whilst we have defined what will constitute a breakdown and know in advance what action to take should breakdown occur, we are now in the bullish camp and have been buying a range of selected stocks in expectation of an upside breakout which should lead to a powerful broad based advance.

We require 3 conditions to be be met to be sure that we have an upside sector breakout, which are expected to be synchronously fulfilled. First gold has to break out upside from its current potentially bearish Rising Wedge - new highs are NOT GOOD ENOUGH and to claim they are is amateurish. Second, while silver has undeniably broken out upside from a Triangle, IT HAS NOT BROKEN OUT YET TO CLEAR NEW HIGHS. Thirdly, as more ordinary investors are well aware, Precious Metals stocks indices HAVE NOT YET BROKEN OUT to new highs, although there is strong evidence is that they will do before long.

Let's be clear - we are not trying to "rain on anyone's parade" by making the above observations, we are simply "keeping one foot on the ground". Our outlook for the sector is now strongly bullish for the reasons which we will now set out. Fundamentally the outlook for gold and silver is rosy. There is an unstoppable global trend of competitive currency devaluation underway which is driven by balance of trade considerations and given that governments have this powerful core motivation to devalue their currencies, what better way to do it than simply to print more of the stuff, which means that you can avoid liquidity problems within your economy and placate grumbling workers unsettled by rising inflation by giving them pay rises, using massaged statistics to make sure that their pay rises don't keep up with inflation. The US is the "maestro" of both money creation, which is now absolutely necessary to service runaway debt and government spending, and fiddling statistics, like the CPI and the unemployment figures, the former to cheat people on fixed incomes out of fair cost of living increases and the latter to make things look better than they really are

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Three solid fellows present their view on the future of the price of Gold.

Alf Field: $4,250 – $10,000 Click here to read the article…

Harry Schultz: $6,000 Click here to read the article…

Martin Armstrong: $5,000 Click here to read the article…

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