Thursday, June 30, 2011


Is it just my imagination, or was that ANOTHER "contrived" Precious Metals take down ahead of the London PM price fix [10AM est] today?

In the theater of the absurd, do you expect anything but the absurd?  Could another ill-advised release of SPR Oil be behind this "sell-off"?

IEA may decide on extending oil release by mid-July
(Reuters) - The International Energy Agency could decide by mid-July whether the release of strategic oil reserves needs to be extended for a month or two, an official said.

The 28-member IEA announced last week a plan to release 60 million barrels over an initial 30 days to fill the gap in supplies left by the disruption to Libya's output.

Richard Jones, deputy executive director of the IEA, said he believed the release would be temporary since demand would likely drop in the fourth quarter.

"We do believe it could be temporary but we have to see how the market evolves. There could be other disruptions, for example, we are compensating for the losses in Libya," Jones said at an event in Mexico City.

A decision on whether to extend the release could be made around the third week of July, he said.

"It will be up to our member countries, they could decide to continue it for a month or two. I don't see that we'll need to continue it for very long because we see demand declining in the fourth quarter, so we think it's a temporary measure."

Talk is cheap.  With the already approved release of 60 million barrels of Oil already proven to be an utter failure at containing Oil and gasoline prices, the IEA at the risk of looking stoopid, must now pretend that further releases may be imminent in an effort to get more mileage [pun intended] out of their foolish plan to "control the price of Oil" and save the world economy.

Of course we must also consider the implications of tomorrows Non-farm Payrolls Report.  This number is likely to by abysmal.  The Precious Metals are routinely hit ahead of this report.  It is just the blatant obviousness of these contrived attacks on the Precious Metals that are so frustrating.  But at the same time laughable, as they only offer the physical metal to investors at discount prices...further pressuring those that are foolish short the Precious Metals in unavailable quantities.  Where are my thank-you cards?

[Regarding tomorrows Payrolls Report:  Should there be a "take down" ahead of the 8:30AM report tomorrow, I suggest buying in to the news as soon as it hits, as the lows for Silver and Gold in July will be witnessed at that time imo.]

Eric Sprott has a new essay out in which he swings a large heavy stick at the tyranny of a rigged paper monopoly over silver price discovery.  This is a MUST READ essay for any and all investors in Silver, particularly those that have been scared out of, or away from,  this latest episode of high volatility in this rigged market:

Caveat Venditor!
From Eric Sprott and Andrew Morris
The recent bear raid on silver has left many concerned about the sustainability of its historic run. Silver, being a relatively obscure market for most mainstream commentators, attracted much attention in the ensuing days following the May 1 takedown. Indeed, though the 30% drop in silver occurred over only four days, seemingly all eyes were on silver, with commentators who could’ve cared less about the silver market only a couple of months ago, suddenly tripping all over one another to make the bubble call. Silver bubble 2.0? Hardly. Anyone who has been fortunate to have been invested in silver over the past few years would unfortunately be used to such blatant takedowns. The Chinese don’t call it the "Devil’s Metal" for no good reason. With so much talk these days about the risks of investing in silver, we think that perhaps it may be timely for us to weigh in on the matter. The silver market is riskier than ever, but for reasons the vast majority of pedestrian commentators have failed to grasp.

There is no doubt that speculative dollars have been flowing into the silver market. We note that in April record trading volumes were registered in the SLV1, Comex futures2, LBMA transfers3, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange futures4. In fact, converting the average daily trading volume in the aforementioned silver instruments to the amount of ounces of silver they are supposed to represent, there were on average, over 1.1 billion ounces worth of silver traded every day in the month of April5. Truly a staggering number when contrasted against the actual amount of silver available for investment. To wit, the world will only supply about 979 million ounces this year from mine and recycling of scrap, of which it is estimated that 657 million ounces will be used up for non-investment purposes6. So in effect, that leaves roughly only 322 million ounces available this year for investment purposes. Converting to days (recall that at least 1.1 billion ounces traded each day) it leaves only about 1.3 million ounces per trading day of available supply. So, we are essentially trading the amount of physical silver actually available for investment, 891 times over each day! It really begs the question; just what are people trading in these markets?
  Read more here.

Let there be no mistake, we view the current setup as extremely bullish. In our view, whatever froth and excess was present in the paper markets has likely been shaken out in the recent selloff. The remaining longs do not seem willing to part with their silver at these prices. These are the strong hands with longer time horizons that are likely not overly leveraged or are willing and able to withstand substantial volatility. Moreover, perhaps the "game" on the paper silver markets which has been meticulously documented over decades by Ted Butler14 and others, will soon be coming to an end.

What is perhaps most important is that despite what has recently transpired in the paper silver markets, the robust demand fundamentals for silver have not changed in our view. For confirmation of this, look no further than the physical silver market (i.e. the real silver market) which is providing us with evidence almost daily of a sustained bull market for physical silver. The US Mint recently stated that, "demand for American Silver Eagle Coins remains at unprecedented high levels."15 Likewise for the Perth Mint16, the Austrian Mint17, and the Royal Canadian Mint18 as well. The Chinese, who were net exporters of silver only four years ago, imported 300% more silver in 2010 than 2009 and such large quantities of imports are expected to continue19. Last year, Indian silver imports increased nearly six-fold, and this year consumption is expected to rise nearly 43% according to the Bombay Bullion Association20. In Utah, silver (along with gold, of course) will now be accepted in weight value as legal tender21. According to Hugo Salinas-Price, a prominent Mexican billionaire, there is now "very strong support for the monetization of silver" in the Mexican congress22. We suspect the Europeans are likely to account for an increasing amount of silver purchases going forward as well. In fact, we just can’t imagine a better outlook for silver fundamentals. This really makes us question who could be short such massive quantities of silver and why? Particularly in those leveraged paper silver markets, where as we demonstrated, only a fraction of the outstanding notional ounces are actually available in physical quantity.

We have a very tough time understanding those bearish arguments against silver. We look at the real silver market, and based on the supply and demand data coming from the real, physical markets for silver, the fundamentals are only getting stronger. And yet there exists another silver market, which as we’ve shown, is not very connected to the physical realm at all. And though silver investors have for decades suffered the tyranny of a rigged paper monopoly over silver price discovery, it appears to us that the tides are turning. In the age of QE to infinity, investors are being more scrupulous with their capital and as such they are demanding physical silver in quantity. With more and more dollars flowing into the silver markets and a finite supply of physical to meet that demand, the theoretical losses for the paper silver short-sellers are near infinite. And with such a skewed and obvious risk/reward payoff vastly favoring the longs, we pose the following question. Who is most at risk in the silver markets: the buyers of a scarce and real asset that serves a growing multitude of purposes, or the sellers, who are short a quantity of silver which may very well not even be obtainable at anywhere near current prices? Let the Seller Beware!

The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold And Silver  [MUST READ]
by Chris Martenson

This report lays out an investment thesis for gold and one for silver. Various factors lead me to conclude that gold is one investment that you can park for the next ten or twenty years, confident that it will perform well. My timing and logic for both entering and finally exiting gold (and silver) as investments are laid out in the full report.

The punch line is this: Gold and silver are not (yet) in bubble territory, and large gains remain, especially if monetary, fiscal, and fundamental supply-and-demand trends remain in play.

For how much longer are the taxpayers in America going to sit silently as their central bank funnels money to the European banks?  The US Congress?

Fed Extends Lending Program for Central Banks
WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve, amid persistent worries about Europe's sovereign debt crisis, last week quietly approved the extension of a crisis-lending program that allows the European Central Bank to tap the U.S. for dollars, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said.

The Fed's dollar-lending agreements with the ECB—as well as the central banks of England, Canada, Japan and Switzerland—were scheduled to expire Aug. 1. The Fed and other central banks haven't yet disclosed renewal of the agreements, known as swap lines.

Fed officials voted to extend the program, which was first launched during the financial crisis, at their latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting June 21-22, Mr. Bullard said in an interview Tuesday.

Under the agreement, the Fed can lend an unlimited amount of dollars to foreign central banks for a fee, and they in turn lend them to local commercial banks. The program was launched during the crisis because many foreign banks, especially those in Europe, had trouble tapping short-term dollar loans in credit markets, yet they needed access to dollars to fund their holdings of mortgage bonds and other U.S.-dollar-denominated debt.

The Fed says it takes no risk in these swap lines because foreign central banks, not the commercial banks, are obligated to return the dollars. At the height of the financial crisis, foreign central banks tapped the Fed for more than $600 billion of these loans.

QE2 may have "officially" come to an end today, but the fed will not stop buying US Treasury debt anytime soon:

Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2
The Federal Reserve will remain the biggest buyer of Treasuries, even after the second round of quantitative easing ends this week, as the central bank uses its $2.86 trillion balance sheet to keep interest rates low.

While the $600 billion purchase program, known as QE2, winds down, the Fed said June 22 that it will continue to buy Treasuries with proceeds from the maturing debt it currently owns. That could mean purchases of as much as $300 billion of government debt over the next 12 months without adding money to the financial system.

The central bank, which injected $2.3 trillion into the financial system after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008, will continue buying Treasuries to keep market rates down as the economy slows. The purchases are supporting demand at bond auctions while President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress struggle to close the gap between federal spending and income by between $2 trillion and $4 trillion.

“I don’t think the Fed wants to remove accommodation in any way, shape or form,” said Matt Toms, the head of U.S. public fixed-income investments at Atlanta-based ING Investment Management, which oversees more than $500 billion. “It’s quite natural for them to reinvest cash,” he said. “That effectively maintains the accommodative stance.”

Zero Hedge updates us below on this weeks bond auctions as QE2 comes to an end:

Dealers Rescue Very Weak 2 Year Auction As Indirects Flee From Short End, Despite Record Low Yield

Horrible 5 Year Auction Sends Treasury Complex Into A Tailspin, 5 Year Yield Surges 22 Bps In Two Days

Ugly 7 Year Auction Caps Miserable Week For Bond Bulls
Treasury Complex Collapses To Celebrate Last QE2 POMO
The biggest question of who will buy bonds now that Primary Dealers will be unable to roll debt to the Fed remains, judging by today's carnage in bonds, completely unanswered.
And Greece is the World's biggest debt problem? 

We'll give our tax dodging US Treasury Secretary the last word as we head into the nation's annual Fourth of July Celebration Of Freedom:
"There is no credible budget plan under which a debt limit increase can be avoided."

 -Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

1 comment:

  1. Silver is trading around 30. Not bad considering gold has long surpassed its old high.