Sunday, April 14, 2013

The Bull Market in Gold is over? That's LUDICROUS!



causing laughter because of absurdity; provoking or deserving derision; ridiculous; laughable: a ludicrous lack of efficiency.  []

The general consensus of the Gold Community regarding Friday's Banking Cartel attack on "the price" of the Precious Metals: "LUDICROUS!"

I personally maintain my belief that "the assault on Gold is futile", and the collapse of the US Dollar is inevitable...if not imminent.

Friday we witnessed the most blatant coordinated attack on the paper price of Gold by the bullion banks since the Bull Market in Gold began in 2001. All previous attacks on the price of Gold [and Silver] have been futile, and in vain. All have been followed by new all time highs in the price of Gold, and this time will be no different.

Do you really believe the "price" of Gold dropped $84 an ounce Friday because Cyprus was being forced to sell it's Gold?  That's LUDICROUS!  If that were true, why did the price of Silver fall over 6%.  Cyprus wasn't selling any Silver.

The US Dollar on Friday was neither up OR down, and the "price" of Gold fell $84 an ounce?  That's LUDICROUS!

The Bull Market in Gold is over?  That's LUDICROUS!

How Does Selling their Gold Fix their Problems?

I had not planned any commentary today but with gold “down” $65 per ounce I will put my 2 cents in.  As you know, I called “bottom” about 5 weeks ago the first time we hit $1,550 then again about 2 weeks ago on the retest of those levels.  They were broken decisively today.  The reason for Wednesday’s sell off of $25?  And the reason given for today’s $65 by the CNBC know nothings?  Cyprus!
Yep, Cyprus may sell ALL of their gold and swamp the market!  This week’s price action is merely “front running” these sales in order to get out before the price is CRUSHED!  But wait, Cyprus has less than 14 tons of gold… this is worth some $650 million (yes, with an “m”) yet they have an updated shortfall of some $23 billion (with a “b”) so how does selling their gold fix their problems?  Well obviously it does not even amount to a drop in the bucket as it is only 3% or so of what capital they will need to raise!
Let me put this into perspective for you in a couple of different ways.  The Fed is creating $85 billion per month or close to $3 billion per day, 24/7.  The Cypriot gold is only 1/5th of what our Fed prints EVERY day!  The U.S. Treasury borrows some $4 billion per day to keep our well-oiled economic engine running.  ALL of the Cypriot Gold is about 1/7th of what the U.S. borrows each and EVERY day.  Last month, China imported from Hong Kong alone some 97 tons or roughly 7 times the amount of Cyprus’s total gold holdings, the Cypriot gold is a mere 4 day’s worth of imports.  One other way to look at this is that 14 tons is about 6 tenths of 1 percent of the global production of gold for 1 year… it is nothing.  No, $650 million in today’s world is LESS THAN NOTHING!
So, we are told that the sale of $650 million worth of Gold has just caused a 3+% drop in the price of gold (and more than 5% in silver).  Is this credible?  And if it had any credibility at all, this is gold being sold, not silver so why would silver, platinum, palladium and even copper be sold off?  I will leave you with a few questions that I won’t answer because the answers are too obvious.  Do you really believe that holders of physical metal would part with their metal if they knew something bad like a system wide banking failure was imminent?  Or a (another) sovereign was going to default?  Or some whackos were going to start lobbing nuclear weapons up in the air?  Would physical holders sell (in panic fashion no less) because a “treasure” was found or some new mine opened that had 14 tons of gold?
Do you see the lack of logic here?  Literally trillions of dollars in paper monies are being put into the system and gold is not only finite, it is scarce to begin with.  More physical has been purchased than produced over the last at least 20 years so we know that “inventories” are shrinking.  Do you not think that the Chinese would like to take an extra 14 tons into their hoard?  How about India?  There are reports of shortages of gold in south India, wouldn’t they like this 14 tons to alleviate the shortage?
Or, maybe I’m reading this thing the wrong way.  Maybe investors are selling their paper gold because they suddenly realized that it has no backing.  Maybe they will sell it all the way down to its intrinsic value… ZERO!  All I can say is that in the past whenever gold was sold off in violent fashion, we soon found out about another BIG problem that was brewing behind the scenes.  This is my bet, something big, REALLY BIG is collapsing out of sight of the public’s eye and we will only learn of it after the fact.
By the way, when the markets close there will be a period of time where no one has a clue about what the “price of gold” is.  The only thing you will know is whether you have it or not.
The action of the Gold market under the direction of Goldman and Merrill in a nutshell:
"The things you want you have to make look bad, the things you want to get rid of you need to make look good. This is the biggest Kabuki theatre on earth. Almost everybody is fooled in plain sight."
CIGA Patrick


Flagrant Desperation by The Cerebral Aesthetic Vagabond
April 13, 2013

“They” must be getting desperate to resort to such flagrant manipulation of the markets, the way they did yesterday.

Just Another Day At The G-S Corral

For years gold and silver have been routinely pummeled to protect the U.S. Dollar’s image, but never more so than Friday, April 12, when, according to one expert, 500 tons of gold were sold in the futures market in a single day. To put that in perspective, just a few years ago the major governments of the world were bound by agreement to limit their collective gold sales to 500 tons per year! So selling 500 tons in a single day is a truly staggering quantity, but consistent with the observed price action. Needless to say, a sale of that magnitude can have no legitimate trading purpose; the objective of such a massive sale was clearly to smash the price and frighten away precious metals buyers.

One has to wonder just who are the buyers of these futures contracts. After all, anyone who’s seriously looking to purchase physical metal is not going to purchase it using these contracts. Such contracts might be useful in other commodity markets that are still legitimate, such as that for corn, but the futures market for precious metals has evolved into an instrument that exists solely for the purpose of manipulating precious metals prices. Anyone in the market for hundreds of tons of physical metal is probably shrewd enough to be aware of the corrupt nature the futures market. Moreover, I seriously doubt that the sellers of these futures contracts could deliver the metal when the contracts expire. Finally, why would someone purchase 500 tons of gold in the futures market, knowing that a sale of that magnitude would crash the price? Why would anyone purchase an asset that they could anticipate was going to decline in price?

Given the anonymous nature of these trades and the utter lack of any regulatory oversight, what’s to stop a single entity from being both the seller and buyer of these futures contracts, especially if shell companies are used to further conceal the identities of the parties? In such a case, the only thing that actually has to be transferred is a small fee to the operator of the exchange, “hush money,” since the exchange operators are every bit as culpable as the principals in manipulating these markets. Otherwise, no physical metal or cash needs to be exchanged; only a simple accounting entry has to be made in the books of the seller and buyer. And when the contract expires, the can seller offer to settle in cash, which the buyer would accept (since they’re the same party) and both parties would simply make another accounting entry canceling out the transaction. Thus, it can appear that metal has been sold, when in fact nothing has been sold or delivered. To add insult to injury, the parties involved might even be able to obtain tax deductions for any expenses or “losses” incurred in the deal!


For every seller, there is a buyer....

Whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that more than a stunning 500 tons of paper gold has been sold in today’s takedown in the gold market.  Maguire also spoke to KWN about the staggering Chinese physical gold purchases.  Below is what Maguire had to say in this remarkable and exclusive interview.
Eric King:  “How much paper gold was sold to take this market down, and how much tonnage have the Chinese and others been taking out of the physical market?”

Maguire:  “Just since the cross (today) of $1,550 into the (London) fix and the breach of $1,500, we are now looking at in excess of 500 tons of paper gold that’s been sold....

Eric King:  “So all of that is today?”

Maguire:  “Yes.”

Eric King:  “So when you look at the tonnage being taken out by the central banks in the last couple of weeks, including today, what kind of tonnage are we talking about on the physical side?”

Maguire:  “Deliveries in Shanghai alone in March were 283 tons.  In the eight trading days of April, we have seen another 117 tons (of gold) delivered.  Today was another 20 tons delivered.  So what we are looking at here is over 400 tons (of gold) in less than a month and a half.

Eric, consider that the basis of all of the mainstream media shills coming out and saying, ‘We’re in a bearish market because GLD, the ETF, has dumped around 200 tons since the beginning of the year.  But what we are talking about here is China having purchased and taken delivery of over 400 tons in less than a month and a half.  And since the beginning of the year (that figure) is substantially higher.  It’s probably in the 800 ton range (for the Shanghai Exchange). 

So it just amazes me how people concentrate on what’s happening in one paper market.  What we are seeing today is actually a very positive development.  I think we’ve reached a point of capitulation.  I cannot see how the central bank buying cannot overwhelm all of these short sales, despite the leverage.”


GLD Holdings Plunge
Adam Hamilton     April 12, 2013

Gold has faced stiff headwinds lately as investors abandon alternative investments to chase record-high stock markets.  Probably the most significant has been the major selling hammering the flagship GLD gold ETF.  It has suffered such intense differential selling pressure that its custodians have been forced to dump enormous quantities of physical gold.  What are the implications of this flood of new supply?

The amount of gold bullion GLD has hemorrhaged recently is amazing.  To put it into perspective, earlier this week the rumor that embattled Cyprus may be forced to sell its official gold reserves made news.  The Cypriot government owns 13.9 metric tons of gold.  But on a single trading day alone in February’s gold capitulation, GLD had to sell 20.8 tonnes!  The supply recently added by GLD dwarfs everything else.

Why is GLD dumping gold so aggressively?  While silly conspiracy theories abound as always in the gold world, the reality is far less provocative.  GLD’s mission is simply to track the price of gold.  The World Gold Council (which is funded by leading gold miners) created this gold investment vehicle in November 2004 to offer stock investors an easy, cheap, and efficient way to obtain gold exposure in their portfolios.

The gold miners created a direct conduit for the vast pools of stock-market capital to chase gold.  The only way for GLD to fulfill its mission of tracking gold is for this ETF to shunt excess GLD-share demand and supply into underlying physical gold bullion itself.  This capital sloshing into and out of gold via GLD has naturally had a massive impact on global gold prices.  And lately gold has suffered a major GLD exodus.

During times like 2009 when gold grows popular among investors, GLD shares are bought up far faster than gold itself is rallying.  This excess, or differential, GLD demand would quickly force this ETF to decouple from the metal to the upside if not equalized into physical gold.  So GLD’s custodians sop it up by issuing new GLD shares to meet demand.  They then use the proceeds to buy more gold bullion.

But when gold is falling out of favor like now, capital flows reverse.  GLD shares are dumped at a quicker pace than gold’s own selloff.  This differential selling pressure creates an excess supply of GLD shares.  This ETF would decouple from gold to the downside if this wasn’t equalized into the metal.  So GLD is forced to buy up this excess supply.  It raises the cash to do this by selling some of its gold bullion.

And this is what we’ve experienced lately, heavy differential selling pressure.  As the levitating stock markets rise ever higher, investors have sold gold to buy general stocks.  Because of its incredible liquidity, GLD has been the epicenter of this anti-alternative-investment rotation.  It’s rather illogical when you think about it, selling gold low to buy stocks high.  Investors are supposed to buy low and sell high!

But sadly greed and fear always overwhelm reason at market extremes.  Foolish investors rush to sell low after long corrections, just before new uplegs are born.  And later they eagerly flood into markets after long uplegs, buying high just before major corrections.  Selling low and buying high leads to financial ruin, which is why such a small fraction of investors ever achieve significant success in the financial markets.

Gold is universally despised right now because it is low, the ideal time to buy.  General stocks are adored if not worshipped because they are high, the prudent time to sell.  Every day on CNBC, a long parade of analysts effectively proclaim gold is doomed to sink to zero while stocks will joyously rally forever more.  The intense selling pressure GLD has faced in recent months simply reflects these emotional extremes.

As a contrarian I’ve grown rich fighting the crowd, being brave when others are afraid and afraid when others are brave as Warren Buffett once eloquently put it.  That’s the only way to buy low and sell high.  So I’ve watched GLD’s holdings lately with great interest.  Thankfully this flagship gold ETF is very transparent, publishing its holdings daily.  How does GLD’s holdings plunge stack up relative to precedent?

This first chart over the past year or so highlights the extreme differential selling pressure GLD has faced in recent months.  Its holdings are shown in blue and tied to the right axis, superimposed over the gold price in red.  There has been no bigger headwind facing gold lately than the deluge of physical-gold-bullion supply GLD has been forced to dump into the global gold markets.  It has proven overwhelming.


Former US Treasury Official - Fed Orchestrated Smash In Gold

Today a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury told King World News that the smash in gold and silver today was entirely orchestrated by the Federal Reserve.  Former Assistant of the US Treasury, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, also warned KWN that stocks of available physical gold are “rapidly declining.”  Below is what Dr. Roberts had to say in this extraordinary and exclusive interview.

Eric King:  “Dr. Roberts, we have this smash on gold and silver today.  Gold down $75 at one point and silver was down $1.75, your thoughts here?”

Dr. Roberts:  “This is an orchestration (the smash in gold).  It’s been going on now from the beginning of April.  Brokerage houses told their individual clients the word was out that hedge funds and institutional investors were going to be dumping gold and that they should get out in advance. 

Then, a couple of days ago, Goldman Sachs announced there would be further departures from gold.  So what they are trying to do is scare the individual investor out of bullion.  Clearly there is something desperate going on.... 

“I have assumed from the beginning that it is the Fed’s concern with the dollar because the dollar is being printed in huge quantities at the same time that other countries are abandoning the use of the dollar as international payment.

The exchange value of the dollar is (being) threatened, and if that collapses the Fed loses control over interest rates.  Then the bond market blows up, the stock market blows up, and the banks that are too big to fail, fail.  So it’s an act of desperation because they’ve got to establish in people’s minds that the dollar is the only safe place, it is the only safe haven, not gold, not silver, and not other currencies.

And to help protect this policy they have convinced or pressured the Japanese to inflate their own currency.  The Japanese are now going to print money like the Fed.  They are lobbying the ECB to print more.  So I see this as a dollar protection policy.

...I know where the gold is coming from in the market, it’s just paper.  It’s naked shorts, there is no gold there.  If somebody wanted to take delivery on those contracts nobody would be able to provide it.  I don’t know what the source of the (physical) gold is.  Some people are saying that the actual stocks available for possession are rapidly declining.”

Eric King:  “Going forward, Dr. Roberts, what do you expect out of all of this?  If the gold is coming out of Western central bank vaults and flowing to the East, the old saying is, ‘So goes the gold, so goes the power.’”

Dr. Roberts: “Well, I think the power of the West has already been lost.  When you have off-shored your manufacturing and professional service jobs, you’ve hollowed out your economy.  So gold or no gold, the United States economy has been severely damaged and I don’t think it can recover.

This gold business (smash in price) is something to do with the dollar.  They are trying to save this Federal Reserve policy of negative real interest rates.  You can’t do that if the dollar loses value relative to gold because it implies it should be losing value relative to other currencies.

If the dollar’s exchange value drops, then the price of imports that come in here (to the US) rise.  So you get domestic inflation, and if you have domestic inflation you can’t have zero interest rates, or negative real interest rates.  So the Fed would lose control and that’s the basis of this policy.

They are trying to destroy gold as a (safe) haven from the dollar in order to carry on the Fed’s policy of negative real interest rates.  That is what is driving the illegal policy of selling naked shorts in order to manipulate a market.  If you and I were to do something like this without the government’s instruction or protection, we would be arrested (laughter ensues).  So the fact that it’s illegal, being done by the authorities, tells me that they are seriously worried about the dollar.”


Is the assault on Gold an effort to defend the US Dollar from it's imminent demise?

The first story today is the dollar. It has been my theory now for several weeks that the dollar rally is a mirage. Usually a dollar rally signals a flight to safety during a period of risk off, corresponding to an intermediate degree correction in the stock market.
That was not the case this time. The dollar wasn’t rising because of a flight to safety. The dollar was rising because the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian dollar were all dropping down into intermediate or yearly cycle lows at the same time. This put tremendous upward pressure on the dollar for no other reason than traders were selling everything else.
That phase has ended. At this time I’m confident that at least 3 out of the 4 currencies have completed their decline and begun intermediate degree rallies. The only one still in question to complete the bottoming cluster is the yen. I’m not sure that one has made a final bottom just yet. Once it does, and starts to rally, the dollar is going to come under extreme pressure. All of these currencies produced extremely sharp ICL’s and regression to the mean is going to push very sharp upside moves as they come out of these lows. That is going to translated into a very hard move down in the dollar.
As a matter of fact, on Friday the dollar marginally pierced the previous daily cycle low. When this happens it indicates that the current daily cycle has “failed”. All that means is that a pattern of lower lows and lower highs has begun. This almost always signals that an intermediate decline has started.
Click on chart to enlarge
So we now have an intermediate dollar cycle where the second daily cycle has already failed. We should now have at least two and possibly three more left translated daily cycles before a final intermediate bottom. Since the intermediate cycle is left translated it should move below the prior ICL. I think it will drop well below that level, maybe even far enough to test the may 2011 lows. The extreme currency weakness we’ve seen in other currencies is now ready to infect the US dollar.
Remember we are talking about a yearly cycle low starting. Yearly cycle lows are scary as hell events. The summer of 2011 in the stock market was a yearly cycle low. Gold is in a yearly cycle low, granted a somewhat artificial one, but you get the picture. At yearly cycle lows it seems like the world is ending.
Since the dollar move is somewhat artificial (85 billion a month) just like what is happening in gold, we can probably expect the same kind of hopeless conditions at the bottom later this summer. By the time we get into the final bottoming phase the dollar is going to be in complete freefall.
Haynes - Gold & Silver Buyers Outpacing Sellers 50 to 1

Today 41-year market veteran Bill Haynes warned King World News that we are already already on the verge of seeing major shortages of available retail bullion products.  Haynes also said gold and silver buyers are outpacing sellers by a stunning margin, and he is now seeing premiums on physical products that haven’t been seen in decades.  Below is what Haynes had to say in this extraordinary interview.

Haynes: “Eric, last week we sold more gold and silver than we normally sell in a whole month.  On Friday alone it was astounding because we sold as much physical bullion as we would normally sell in an entire week.  There is a great deal of big money coming into the market on this decline.

If buying continues at the rate we saw on Friday, there will be immediate shortages of product....

“We will see instant shortages of silver products such as silver rounds, 10 ounce bars, 100 ounce bars, silver eagles, and silver maple leafs if this relentless demand continues.  Silver eagles and silver maple leafs are already seeing delayed delivery.  

In other words, the mints can’t keep up with the demand for those coins.  The US Mint could easily have another record year of 40+ million ounces of American Silver Eagle sales.  I would also add that there are already premiums on 90% silver coins that we haven’t seen in decades.

But the buying is coming in huge for both gold and silver.  The physical gold market is on fire as well.  Our largest 7-figure order this week was specifically for one ounce gold bars.  There was also big buying of American Gold Eagles.  This massive buying is taking place in the entire metals industry right now.  

This is why I cannot stress to you enough that we will see immediate shortages of product if this continues.  If another ‘Black Swan’ happens I can promise you we will see immediate shortages of gold products as well.”


Maguire - There Is Absolutely No Physical Gold For Sale

On the heels of a cascade of selling in gold and silver, today whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News about the extraordinary intervention which took place in both of these markets.  Maguire also told KWN about the staggering amount of physical gold tonnage that Eastern central banks were attempting to buy today alone, in a market that, remarkably, is not seeing any supply.  Below is what Maguire had to say in part II of his remarkable and exclusive interview.

Maguire:  “It’s pure short selling in the paper market, and the focus of all of this all is to reach and target as many long-stops as possible which they have done this afternoon.  Then they can obviously cover these paper short sales.

Historically, in order to succeed when the official sellers have come in, they have relied on being able to back up the paper market interventions with real physical supply, albeit, hypothecated or re-hypothecated, borrowed or leased bullion....

“It’s easy to look at the technicals today and see this cascade down, that’s the long stops being tripped.  But what we are seeing now is none of the physical supply is appearing.  None of it is going to back up these sales.  So this is a clear sign of weakness.  

Now the bullion banks are really trading the Fed’s ‘virtual market book,’ but they are constrained.  They are really constrained as to how far they can push these paper prices because the ... Eastern hemisphere central banks, who are competing with each other to buy (physical) bullion, these are the guys that are picking up this discount.  This (smash in gold) results in an exponential ramp-up in their physical buying.  

All they (central planners) are doing is delaying an extremely disorderly rebound (in the price of gold).  Give it a few days because at least 90 tons of central bank buying today was seen below $1,550, into the afternoon fix (in London).  As we cascade down here you can guarantee that what they (Eastern buyers) are doing is ‘spot indexing,’ which is basically locking in the price in the paper market and will allocate that at an upcoming fix (in London).  

So I give it (at the most) two to three days before this has a massive rebound effect, and the short fuel above the market now is at absolutely unprecedented levels.”  


The Increasing Irrationality Of The Gold Market
Jason Hamlin
13 April 2013
The gold price fell through key support today, declining by $84 or 5.4%. Silver dropped by $1.81 or 6.5% to just $25.85. I have no problem with corrections in general, as they are a healthy part of any bull market and provide a platform from the which the next upleg can spring. But something is not quite right about the recent price action in precious metals as the markets have become increasingly divorced from reality over the past few months. Let’s look at some of the glaring contradictions and then discuss the implications.

Gold and Silver Drop Sharply Despite USD Holding Steady

Gold is down 4% today and silver has declined by roughly 5%, yet the USD trades essentially flat. Nothing says that gold has to always adhere to the inverse correlation with the USD, but it has been one of the strongest correlations over the course of this bull market. Kitco has a page that shows how much of the daily price change is due to the change in the USD vs. selling pressure. None of today’s decline can be attributed to weakness in the dollar. One has to ask what exactly is causing such extreme levels of selling in the face of a steady dollar? 

Big Banks Telling Investors to Sell While Central Banks Buy at Record Levels

Mining Stocks Fall Precipitously, Despite Insider Buying at Multi-Year Highs

The Silver Price has Fallen Sharply, Yet Sales of Silver Eagles Have Hit All-Time Records in 2013

Supporting this notion of manipulation and a recent increase in the severity of it, John Embry recently commented:

Both gold and silver have been flooded with several simultaneous waterfall declines on the COMEX. Gold and silver have also been hit by heavy selling during the quietest periods of the day, suggesting that pressure wasn’t coming from profit-seekers. Moreover, almost all rallies on the COMEX were capped at a gain of almost exactly 1%, as algorithms were switched on.

The recent price action definitely smacks of a desperate attempt at holding down precious metals and keeping the fiat fractional reserve debt-based dollar as world reserve currency. I think the powers that be are getting a little nervous, desperate and increasingly blatant in their attempts to maintain their power to print the world’s reserve currency. This comes after an incredible crisis in Cyprus that has shaken the confidence of depositor and investors worldwide.

I think this signals that we are at or near a bottom in the precious metals correction, although the technical damage done today suggests a further decline. At some point soon though, the gig will be up and there will be a flood of money rushing into safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. This rush will be particularly powerful because for the first time in modern history, the other competing safe haven, the U.S. dollar, will be the asset from which people are fleeing and seeking such shelter. 


What most people do not understand is that the price of gold and silver are not determined by how much gold and silver is being sold. It is how many gold and silver IOUs are being sold. And you can write as many IOUs, futures contracts and options, as you want. Those are unlimited. The supply, though, of physical gold and silver is quite limited, and so when people actually start asking for it and they want the physical, then there is a divergence of the paper price versus the physical price, and we are seeing that right now.
We are in a back-order situation with all of the suppliers. Spreads are going up. Silver eagles cost about fifty cents over spot more than they normally cost because all of the suppliers have had to raise their price to try and find the supply/demand equilibrium that the markets are for. The markets are there to try and find a supply/demand equilibrium, so then price is the arbitrator. Price rises; that draws more supply and reduces demand. Price falls; that reduces supply and increases demand.
So the price discovery mechanism of the markets is what is supposed to ensure that things are in equilibrium. We have this broken system where there are a few big players that manipulate the market, and it always shows up when shortages start developing in the physical market. You know that the price of gold and silver right now are too low to be realistic. And the good thing about that is that it cannot last.
ATTENTION SHOPPERS!!!  These Precious Metals Prices are a gift!  Quit yer bitchin, and BUY-BUY-BUY!!!  And don' forget to thank your criminal banker for the deal...

Why do you think Miss Liberty walks on the American Gold and Silver Eagles?

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