Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Always Late To The Party



"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, (i.e., the "business cycle") the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
-Thomas Jefferson, President of the United States 1801-1809


All the Feds jokers, and all the Treasury's con men, can't put the US Financial System back together again. Try as they might, failure is inevitable.


The Die Is Cast The Cast Will Die
Today, Americans are looking to the Fed to protect them against the financial chaos threatening our economy. This is tantamount to the Jews in 1930s Germany looking to the Nazis to stave off a possible holocaust. The Fed cannot help America with its economic problems because the Fed is itself the cause of those problems.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1206339300.php

Problem Solved?
Now, you will excuse me if I seem a touch skeptical, but I can’t help but notice that short of climbing aboard helicopters rigged to carry pallets of dollars, the Fed is now doing exactly what we have been expecting it to: provide all the liquidity it can muster using its near mystical powers of money creation. In addition to yet another deep cut in the Fed Funds rate, they are now making the almost unprecedented move (at least since the Great Depression) of lending money to non-commercial banks, in the process effectively putting taxpayers on the hook for $30 billion in suspect collateral from Bear Stearns.

Given the estimates that the assets being carried as capital on the books of Bear Stearns were worth only 10% of what was being posted, and the herd-like business practices of the big investment houses, the odds are fairly high that Bear Stearns is not the only institution teetering on the brink.

Yet this week investors seemed to actually buy the idea that the worst is now over, and that the all-clear signal will soon be sounded.


Investors usually show up late to the party, but tend to stay the longest. Bull Markets are usually launched by the contrarians. Never shy, they show up at the party and wonder where everybody is. The speculators show up not long after the contrarians. They party hard and leave quickly...their stamina for parties limited by their excesses. The investors usually stroll into the party just as things are getting out of control, attracted by all the excitement the speculators have created. They know a good party when they find one, and do everything they can to keep the party going. Nobody notices the contrarians slipping out the back door loaded, content with themselves and their effort to get the party started. And then the dumb money shows up, and the party is over.

The Precious Metals Party has had few investors show up yet, but word is they are on their way by the bus load. Word is the speculators are making a spectacle of themselves, and few want to miss this party now.

Next Stop: $2,000 Gold
During the first half of 2007, overall investment in gold was relatively weak; identifiable investment was 22% lower than one year earlier while statistically residual "inferred investment" was substantially negative. In Q3, while inferred investment was close to zero, identifiable investment soared as a result of record quarterly inflows into gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). In Q4 identifiable investment was more subdued, as retail investors took profits and ETF inflows steadied, but inferred investment became strongly positive. In dollar terms total net gold investment in Q4 reached just over $8bn – a quarterly record.

The $95 price drop in gold this past week is therefore nothing short of a gift. An unparalleled buying opportunity that will quickly be acted on, and one of a likely good number, as the volatility in the commodities, debt, and equities markets is going to stay high for the foreseeable future.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/69710-next-stop-2-000-gold?source=d_email

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