"But this flu seems to move too slowly to be a major threat. People are able to see it coming, and take precautions. The next major epidemic will probably move much faster. When you will see the TV news reporter drop dead in front of your eyes, you will know trouble is coming."
- Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning
Reactions in Gold and Silver today were a bit heavier than anticipated. However, as I type this, both metals sit on the support of their 10 and 20 day moving averages. I say both because the 10 day is about to cross above the 20 day moving average in both metals. A bullish signal. This looks like a possible "shakeout" of the weak Bulls to coincide with Last Day Of Trading and First Notice announcements in the CRIMEX contracts this week. Buy the dips. If they want to give the stuff away, take it from them with a smile, and an eye on the big picture.
Consumer confidence soars in April
NEW YORK (AP) -- Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans' moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November.
The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November's 44.7 and well surpasses economists' expectations for 29.5.
The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers' short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture.
Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. A housing index showed Tuesday that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record -- another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 17.12 to 8,042.12 by midday as investors set aside worries about spread of swine flu and the viability of banks.
Improvements in the stock market have helped boost shoppers' moods, said Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wachovia Securities, but major economic problems remain -- and that means that confidence could bounce up and down for awhile, he said.
"We can't say we have seen the bottom of the economy," he said. "We still have some economic concerns that we have to work through."
Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.
The huge jump in confidence follows a small increase in March, following a freefall in February. Still, the index remains well below year-ago levels of 62.8.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-confidence-soars-in-apf-15056729.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
Optimism About US Economy May Be Wishful Thinking
Consumers hoping that the worst of the recession is over may be setting themselves up for disappointment as the US economy continues to deteriorate, a panel of economists and financial experts said Tuesday.
Surging unemployment and the slow-moving impact of the government stimulus program will stall any real economic recovery until 2010 or even later, the panel said. Consumers fearful of losing their jobs are likely to continue to spend less while the housing and financial crises continue to unwind.
"I'm fairly pessimistic about the near-term future," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center of Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C. "I can't imagine a situation where unemployment doesn't go to 10 (percent). My guess is we're going to cross 11 by sometime next year."
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index jumped in April to the highest level this year, reflecting consumer hopes that the economy is nearing a bottom even if the index itself shows the economy remains weak.
But speakers at a New York State Society of Certified Public Accountants briefing said the future remains murky.
Government officials' talk of "green shoots" in the economy-a term introduced several weeks ago by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and which optimists have used widely since-was highly premature and even irresponsible, Baker said.
"Economically and politically I thought it was poor judgment by the Obama administration to start talking about that," he said. "If I were President Obama I'd be very worried about this. You don't want to be the one saying my program is working and four, five months out there unemployment is really bad and they're going to start blaming you."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Optimism-About-US-Economy-May-cnbc-15057214.html?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
Housing: 'Better' doesn't mean 'good'
Is the U.S. housing market approaching bottom? The rate of decline in U.S. house prices moderated in February. Prices fell 2.1%, according to the Case-Shiller composite index of ten cities.
That sounds like great news for housing-hobbled banks. After all, real estate prices are a key factor in the stress tests the biggest banks are undergoing, right? Not so fast.
Better isn't synonymous with good. The decline is less dramatic than January's 2.6% fall, but it's still an awful figure. Prices have fallen 18.8% over the past year, according to the index.
But let's be optimistic an say the moderation continues, with prices gradually approaching a bottom. The improvement was half of one percent in February (that's to say a 2.1% decline instead of a 2.6%).
Now assume the rate of decline slows to a quarter of a percent in March and continues this trajectory. At the end of the year, prices would be 19% lower - worse than the baseline case under the stress tests.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/28/real_estate/housing_market_bottom.breakingviews/index.htm?section=money_latest
As The Flu Panic gets quickly pushed to "page 4", the media turns it's headlines back to the great "confidence game" being played by the US Government in a never ending attempt to "con" the American people into believing that the "government has evrything under control", and "the economy is not as bad as it seems". Yeah, and pigs with lipstick can fly. I'm sorry, let's leave pigs out of this, they've been wrongly blamed for too much already this week.
"Consumer Confidence Soars" cry the headlines. Like a lead balloon maybe. Ever seen a white man jump? Soars...LOOOOOOOOOOOL. And people believe this drivel, that's the truly sad part.
The bottom in housing? LFMAO! Not even close...and it's absurd to even suggest so. But we've got to firm up that confidence! Hosing prices DROPPED AGAIN in February. If prices are yet again lower than the previous month, it's pretty damn obvious that they have NOT bottomed.
"But we've got to convince the sheep, I mean people, that housing prices have bottomed so that people will start buying them again, " a distant voice behind me whispers.
"Buying them with what?" I ask out loud.
If it wasn't so sad and pathetic, this would be hilarious.
"Monkeys spend all their time picking bottoms. I refuse to pick bottoms as I don't live in trees."
- Hugh Hendry, Chief Investment Officer at Eclectica
Time to Face the Facts (Part 1) [MUST READ]
By Mike Stathis
For anyone who believes any positive earnings reports from the banks, you probably also believe there will be a real recovery in the economy. These “earnings” are even less credible than those reported by the banks during the height of their Ponzi scheme in 2007. Earnings? From the banks? It’s laughable. Let me now state what I consider to be facts related to the bigger picture of this economic fiasco.
Fact #1. All Major Banks Are Insolvent.
Fact #2. We Are Witnessing the Largest Theft in World History.
Fact #3. There is NO Escaping the Depression.
Fact #4. There Will Be No Real Recovery for 90% of Americans.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/132587-time-to-face-the-facts-part-1
Time to Face the Facts (Part 2) [MUST READ]
Fact #5. Most of the Lost Jobs Will Not Return.
Fact #6. The Media is the Most Dangerous Force in America.
Fact #7. Washington Continues to Hide Economic Data.
Fact #8. Most of the “Experts” Are Absolutely Clueless.
Fact #9. There is Much More Risk than Opportunity.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/132842-time-to-face-the-facts-part-2
Largest silver players positioning for tight supplies
By Gene Arensberg
When the silver LCNS:TO is under 30% like it was in the last COT report and the COMEX commercial traders are at historically low net short levels; when the gold:silver ratio is still closer to 70 than it is to 50 (or lower); when we have been witness to company after company announcing production cutbacks or outright closures meaning much less silver will be produced ahead; when the largest silver ETF has to name (and is late in naming) a new custodian because they have run out of storage space and the silver to put in it (and that’s from the largest possible custodian there is); when premiums for anything and everything silver are sky-high on the Street and some products are just plain scarce to boot and when the contango for COMEX futures has a razor-thin, six-cent difference between the near active May contract and the December contract, we have to have a fully bullish, buy-on-weakness bias for silver metal, silver futures and ETFs.
We simply cannot find anything of substance that argues with our thesis that the smartest and largest silver traders on earth are positioning as though they believe a sure-enough physical shortage of silver metal is developing, or about to surface.
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2009/April/27/Bullion-premiums-ease-for-gold,-silver--Got-Gold-R
World Gold Markets: How Lack of Transparency Translates into Poor Analysis
By J.S. Kim
Just a few days ago, I wrote an article about deflation and gold investments in which I stated, “We’re likely to see some downward pressure in the gold and silver futures markets in the very near term and specifically next Monday [Monday April 27th]“. Indeed yesterday, gold dropped in the COMEX markets by $6.80 an ounce (the ask price closed at $907.20 an ounce), though silver actually ended up closing just about even, higher by one penny an ounce.
Furthermore, today, Tuesday, April 28th, I predict that the downward pressure in COMEX gold markets is likely to continue and I would not be surprised to see gold pushed below $900 an ounce at some point in intra-day trading today (author’s note - I released this article about 11 hours before COMEX markets opened in New York on Tuesday).
However, these two days of downward pressure (if another downward day materializes today as I believe to be likely) do not negate the likelihood of another strong leg higher in both gold and silver in May or June. While the gold markets were obviously buoyed at the end of last week as a result of China’s revelation, knowing that the gold markets would dip yesterday and very likely today, while also understanding that these dips do not signify a reversal in trend has nothing to do with fundamental nor technical analysis, but rather with understanding the complexities of the price suppression schemes that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury execute.
One has to understand all the games that are played in these markets to not be misled by the massive amounts of “white noise” that exist in precious metals markets that are purposely created by the financial oligarchs that control the U.S. Federal Reserve and her sister Central Banks. Unfortunately, the analytical world of gold is full of gold neophytes that have not put in the considerable amounts of research necessary to understand either the fundamentals of the gold market that drive its long-term behavior or the complex relationships among Central Banks’ gold reserves, currency markets, and the U.S. Treasury that drive its short-term behavior.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/133504-world-gold-markets-how-lack-of-transparency-translates-into-poor-analysis
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