Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Moderate Inflation Is A Bald Faced LIE

Bull riding is a rodeo sport that involves a rider getting on a large bull and attempting to stay mounted for at least 8 seconds. The rider tightly fastens one hand to the bull with a long braided rope. It is perhaps the most famed of all the rodeo sports.

A rider mounts a bull and grips a flat braided rope. After he secures a good grip on the rope, the rider announces he is ready. The bucking chute (a small enclosure which opens from the side) is opened and the bull storms out into the arena. The rider must attempt to stay on the bull for at least eight seconds, while only touching the bull with his riding hand. His other hand must remain free for the duration of the ride.

The bull bucks, rears, kicks, spins, and twists in an effort to throw the rider off. This continues for a number of seconds until the rider bucks off or unties after completing his ride. A loud buzzer announces the completion of an eight second ride.

Throughout the ride, bull fighters move about the bull in an effort to influence its movements and enhance the ride. When the ride ends, either intentionally or not, the bull fighters move in to protect the rider from harm.

Several days ago I began to warn of the growing threat of increased volatility in the Precious Metals markets. That threat is now reality. Moves up like we saw today, and moves down like we saw on November 11 are about to become MUCH more common. From the description above it is not a stretch to understand the Gold Bulls primary objective: to throw you off the ride. If you want to get to the moon on this ride, you will have to stick to your convictions, and hang on to your positions through the exhilarating run ups, and the gut wrenching whooshes.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that it expects slower economic growth and a slight bump up in unemployment next year due to the housing slump and a credit crunch. The board also said, however, that it thinks inflation will remain moderate.

Inflation is going to accelerate at a pace that is going to SHOCK people...The Fed is going to lie about inflation until the day they are disbanded. Why? Because they are the root cause of inflation. Inflation is NOT rising prices...rising prices are just a "symptom" of inflation. Inflation IS a rising "money supply". And the Fed along with the US Treasury are printing money like it's going out of style. Think about it like this...how could the Fed continue to cut interest rates to prop up the stock market if they admitted there was an inflation problem on the horizon. The Fed has to continue to cut interest rates, and devalue the Dollar, if the US ever hopes to pay off it's never expanding debt to the world. The Dollar may be our Achilles heal, but it is the rest of the world that may feel the most pain from it's demise.

Net US capital flows failed to meet the current account deficit for the third month in a row. The Treasury International Capital System (TICS) accounted a net loss in totals flows of $14.7 billion; the September figure was revised up to -$150.7 billion from -$163.0. Net long term securities transactions were positive at $26.4 billion; in August the flow was reversed at -$70.3 billion. The current account deficit, commonly called the ‘trade gap’ has averaged a little more than $59 billion per month this year. Long term securities flows have collapsed in the third quarter averaging -$24.7 billion per month; in the first half of the year they measured +$85.9 on average per month. Since mid June the Dollar has depreciated 10.6% against the Euro. Europeans are the largest overseas investors in the United States economy.

The falling Dollar is forcing foreign investors to dump their Dollar related assets, and a big portion of that big dump is going to be US Stocks. Dollar loses in the stock market in New York is only multiplied when the foreign investor repatriates his money home. Stock price losses, combined with currency exchange losses add up to a bad investment. And the USA is quickly becoming a bad investment for foreigners.

You don't have to look far to find ever more reasons to buy and own Silver and Gold.

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