Friday, January 25, 2008

A Trillion Is A Million Millions.




Investors are finally waking up to the "value" of Gold. Adjusted for inflation, Gold prices today are still at a discounted discount. The conservative inflation adjusted value of Gold today has been pegged by many around $2200. [That is if you use the US Government's convoluted inflation statistics.] To keep this simple, we'll stick with that estimate. With Gold priced this morning at $920, we have the "mother of all Blue Light Specials" screaming "BUY NOW!". Gold is presently selling at a 140% discount. Heck, at these prices, with that kind of discount, you'd think they were giving the stuff away and paying you to take it. Imagine the line outside of Starbucks if their coffee was on sale at a 140% discount...free coffee and a $1.20 rebate!

The Gold, and Silver, story of 2008 is going to be "Investment Demand". Unfortunately for most American investors, they will wind up playing catchup to the rest of the world in the Gold investment arena. The whole world is on the outside looking in at the US as their currency implodes. Gold is now rising in ALL currencies around the globe as foreigners watch the world's "reserve currency" go down toilet. Americans will be the last to wake up to the Dollars demise as they are lead to the financial slaughterhouse by the greedy thieves on Wall Street and inside their corrupt, and now bankrupt, Federal Government.

Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com does some pretty eye opening math in his recent essay Gold & Math on a Napkin. I have paraphrased below, please read his entire essay here: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1201201098.php

Bankers, Wall Street hucksters, financial network commentators, and floating analysts seem to have flunked basic arithmetic in grand fashion. Maybe they only expose the next link in a long chain of deception, their apparent expertise. One hears estimates of $200 billion on total mortgage bond losses from the Secy of Inflation Ben Bernanke. One witnesses the series of bond writedowns by Wall Street banks. One can read of Wall Street economists like Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, who cites $400 billion in potential bond losses, a favorite figure cited by other bankers. One is subjected to press anchors and their simplistic echoes of bond losses. One is endlessly lectured by highbrow analysts of the extent of bond damage. The trouble is, they all cannot do simple arithmetic and observe the billboards on mortgage bond indexes, fully available.

The total of all US$-based mortgage bonds is $10.4 trillion. A conservative estimate of the prime mortgages within this giant mass is $7 trillion. The ‘AAA’ mortgage bond index has lost a whopping 30%, a fact that continuously eludes the big bankers and their legion of obsequious monitoring mavens. Simple math, within the grasp of a 9-year old kid, results in prime mortgage losses amount to at least $2.1 trillion.

The size of the subprime mortgages in the United States is estimated at $1.4 trillion. The ‘BBB’ mortgage bond index has lost 80% of its value. So subprime mortgage bonds have lost over $1.1 trillion.

PRIME MORTGAGE BOND LOSSES AT LEAST $2 TRILLION
SUBPRIME MORTGAGE BOND LOSSES TOTAL OVER $1 TRILLION
THE TOTAL MORTGAGE BOND LOSSES ARE OVER $3 TRILLION
THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATES ARE WRONG BY A FACTOR OF 10 !!!

GOLD WILL SKYROCKET WHEN THESE NUMBERS ARE FINALLY REPORTED

So why are all the so-called experts spouting about $200 billion in total bond losses? Why are Wall Street economists talking about $400 billion in extensive losses? A simple conclusion is that they prefer to lie and deceive, as they defend their industry. Their message has become simple. "Do not panic, wait it out, because we are desperately trying to sell from our cratering portfolios."

The USGovt stimulus package at $150 billion is being floated, replete with minor tax cuts, and a puny amount of money doled to each households. This is peanuts. Ben Bernanke is a bit late in living up to his name of ‘Helicopter Ben’ actually. The name ‘B-52 Ben’ is in no way deserved, not yet. Questions are asked if the USGovt fiscal plan is enough. Of course not! The stimulus is ten times smaller than required, because the estimated size of the problem is ten times smaller than reality. Unless and until the authorities in charge of this implosion of financially engineered tinkertoys get serious, when a rescue package and resolution platform are designed and put into action valued in the trillion$, they are urinating on raging bonfires.

Folks, $150Billion dollars in a $15Trillion dollar economy is ONLY 1%! If my math is correct...damn a trillion is a lot of zeros...in a $15Trillion economy $40Billion moves through the system each day. That being the case, $150Billion would "stimulate" the economy for 3 1/2 days? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL! Red my lips Mr. President: "It ain't gonna work!" But hey, I'll take the money, and buy some Silver. Of course by the time I get my cut, Silver will probably have gone up 50%. Maybe I'll just use the chump change to buy beer then.

1 comment:

  1. Can you tell me what Surety Bonds are? I have heard of Corporate Surety Bonds but I don’t understand what they are, can you help?

    ReplyDelete