Sunday, May 6, 2012

The CON Remains The Same

As the facade of economic recovery in the US slowly peels away like an onion, we are once again treated to the First Friday Funnies, aka The Non-Farm Payrolls Report.  I won't waste my time or yours pointing out what absolute BULLSHIT this US Government data is.

We should though, stop and recognize the desperation of the Obama Administration.  To go to the lengths that they do to conjure up employment numbers that will give the unemployed in this once great economic powerhouse the "hope" of  finding a job is understandable...understandably desperate.  After all, didn't they promise the nation "hope" when they asked for the Big Chair?

Only in America can the unemployed remain out of work, and the nation's unemployment rate drop.

It's a new definition of "hope" as the CONfidence game in Washington relentlessly practices a "new math" that gives the illusion of economic recovery in the belief that this "hope" will maintain the public's confidence in Washington's ability to "fix everything".

This con-game can only end in failure, and hopelessness.  And only through hopelessness can America look forward to the "change" they were promised by casting their 2008 Presidential vote for the Obama Administration.

America wasn't looking just for a change from a Republican White House to a Democrat White House.  No, America was looking for a change in their national government's behavior.

Has anything in Washington changed since November  of 2008?  The faces may have changed, but the CON remains the same.  The status quo intact.

There has been no economic recovery, and there has been no recovery in jobs...despite what the "leadership" in Washington "hopes" you will believe...the idea of a "jobless recovery" is patently absurd.

Listed below, for your amusement, the TRUTH about the May 4, 2012 Non-Farm Payrolls Report:

US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1%

Tyler Durden's picture

Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009. Schrodinger is alive and well.
From the release:
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)

People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981

Tyler Durden's picture

it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from87,897,000 to
88,419,000.  This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.
Labor force participation Rate:
People not in labor force:

The Addbacks: +22K From Seasonal; +206K From Birth Death

Tyler Durden's picture

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll number rose by 115K in April. That's great: it was a miss but such is life. Here is what the unadjusted data that led to this number says. The seasonal addback in April was +22K, a rapid break from the last 3 years when April saw a negative seasonal adjustment following the traditional huge positive adjustments in the January-March period, which in turn means that the record warm winter give back has not even started! As a result, the seasonal addbacks in 2012 are now a massive 4,499,000 jobs: jobs that have not been added but are expected to materialize based on historical seasonal patterns. And just as importantly, in April the Birth-Death addition was a whopping 206K, far greater than the comparable addition in 2010 and 2011, and much bigger than expected, which brings the year total now to a +20K cumulative total. It means, that by rough estimation, the reality is that in April the unadjusted, unbirth/deathed number was a decline of -111,000, and likely far worse once the true weather adjustments start taking place. This number is corroborated by the Household Survey which dropped by 169,000. So much for the recovery.
Below are the seasonal addbacks to the adjusted number (vs the non-seasonally adjusted monthly number).
This is how this trend looks historically:
And the birth-death adjustment:

St. Louis Fed's "Not In Labor Force" Data Is Now Officially Off The Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

The comedy continues: the April "Not in labor force" seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary.

Real U-3 Unemployment Rate: 11.6%

Tyler Durden's picture

Propaganda unemployment rate: 8.1%; Real unemployment rate: 11.6%. Reason for difference: organic growth of labor force which grows alongside the broader population. Don't be confused by cheap explanations on TV why the labor force should be declining (especially with ZIRP meaning pre-retirement workers have to stay in the labor force ever longer to supplant their meager fixed income): the widely accepted definition of the labor pool, that used by the CBO and all other government forecasting agencies, assumes a 90,000 growth in the labor force every month as it has to keep in line with the growth of the US population! The implication is simple: using a real labor force participation rate long-term average of 65.8%, the real unemployment rate in April was 11.6%, based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as part of the U-3 which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies a 11.6% unemployment rate in the US. This also means that the spread between the propaganda, and the real number is now 3.5%: the most it has been since the early 1980s.

Rick Santelli On Propaganda And Ostrich Economics

From Dave in Denver, The Golden Truth

FRIDAY, MAY 4, 2012

The Non-Farm Payroll Catastrophe

Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws
                                                                    - Mayer Amschel Rothschild

As a self-proclaimed Talmudic scholar and student of history, there is no question that Ben Shalom Bernanke is eminently aware of this famous quote from Mayer Rothschild.  He is even more aware of the significance of it, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  

For those who don't know, please understand that the Fed is NOT part of the Government, none of the officials are elected and it does NOT represent the interests of the citizens of the United States.   The Federal Reserve is a private entity that is owned by several banks, the true identity of which has never been publicly disclosed:
Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.  – The Honorable Louis McFadden, Chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee in the 1930s
Although there are plenty lists available on the internet that outline what is likely a fairly accurate presumption of the controlling banks. I leave it to you to find the list that you think is accurate, but there is not doubt in anyone's mind that the successor banks to the bankers who attended the famous meeting on Jekyl Island in 1910 - arranged by J.P. Morgan (the man) as a precursor to founding and establishing the Federal Reserve as the Central Bank for the United States - are most of thebanks that own the Fed (also there: representatives from the Rothschild and Warburg banking dynasties). It is likely that JP Morgan Chase is the controlling shareholder, as JP Morgan has acquired several of the predecessor entities which were original Fed shareholders, including Chase, which was owned by the Rockefeller family.  Other influential shareholders would  include Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York  (which owns Mellon bank now), Lazard Inc (Lazard Freres/Lazard Brothers) and Rothschild & Compagnie.

At any rate, I bring all of this up because I was having a discussion with a long-time friend who opined that Romney had a shot to beat Obama in November (he's either not voting or writing in Ron Paul).  I replied by saying "not a chance."  Why?  Because Bernanke will lose his job as the most powerful front-man in the United States (see the quote above) and he isn't going to relinquish that.  Romney already said that Bernanke is gone if he's elected.  All Bernanke has to do is shift his money printing and helicopter dropping into high-gear in June and we'll experience a big move higher in all the markets (especially the metals and miners) and a superficial, Government-hiring/stimulated (more road work) economic bounce by October.  Election done - in June.

I bring all of this up because, not only was the headline employment report today a disaster, the details behind the headlines and in the footnotes were an unmitigated catastrophe.  The headline number reported an increase of 115,000 supposed jobs in April, well below the 165,000 consensus expectation and even below the lowest big bank forecast (125k by Goldman, revised lower a couple days ago).   The headline unemployment rate was 8.1%, a slight decline from the March print.  What was not in the headline was the fact that 522,000 people were erased from the labor force by Government statisticians, which was the source of the decline in the unemployment rate.  The labor force participation rate of 64.3%, a 30-year low.  Think about that statistic for a moment:  the Government capriciously decided that 522,000 thousand people had stopped looking for work, and no longer wanted work, in April.  Someone in the Federal Government is hallucinating.

Furthermore, of the 115,000 alleged jobs added, 22,000 were from "seasonal" add-backs and 206,000 were imputed from the birth-death model, the nefarious "plug" number calculated by the Government pin-heads who take a wild "guesstimate" at the number of jobs created and lost by new business creation and closure.  Anyone want to place any faith in that absurd estimate?

There's plenty of other statistical manipulations and Government misrepresentations in the April employment report.  I'm sure several other blogs will pull the report apart and lay out the analysis.  The way I look at it is if you add back the number of people dropped into jobless hell - the 522,000 worker dropouts - and assume the birth/death/seasonal manipulations created another 200,000 fantasy jobs, then April likely saw close to 600,000 jobs lost (115,000 - 522,000 - 200,000).  To try and fine-tune or debate the actual change in employment beyond that is absurd because the real unemployment rate is so far removed from what is reported that to split-hairs over the monthly tally produced by the Government is impossible.

At some point we are going to see a massive QE/money printing/helicopter drop of paper/electronic fiat currency program from the Fed, as Bernanke will heed Mayer Rothschild's wisdom and exercise his control over the U.S. money gold?

From GATA's Bill Holder [ ] [please subscribe!]

Unemployment rate will eventually go to zero!

To all; the non farm payroll number came in at 115,000 which according to Wall Street was a "weak" number. Well, yes, it would be a weak number if it wasn't an outright fabrication in a monthly line of bullshit numbers that are absolutely meaningless! Between the "seasonal and birth/death" additions of 228,000 jobs, the real number would have been a decline of some 113,000. Not only this, the number of people "not in the workforce" exploded by 552,000 people which is how they arrive at an 8.1% unemployment number. 100+% hogwash, period!

At this rate, it won't be long before the unemployment rate drops to zero or even a negative number to match the "negative interest rates" that the Treasury and Fed are contemplating. President Obama told us recently that "he" has created 3 million jobs during his tenure, this number was argued by his opposition to be too high and that only 2 million jobs were created. Well...let's look under the hood here, if the "seasonal and birth/death models" adds only 100,000 per month (probably much more but I'm too lazy to chase down the annual number), then let's see. Mr. Obama has been at the helm for 40 months now at 100,000 per month of truly fictional jobs added which equals 4 million jobs. So...he says 3 million, his detractors say 2 million and BLS (bullshit labor statistics) has added 4 million "fudge factor" jobs...get the picture? But wait there's more! 522,000 people are "no longer in the workforce" anymore (whatever this is supposed to mean if one is healthy and able bodied to work). They have retired (been let go), been discouraged, dropped off of the unemployment rolls or whatever. They are not "looking for work" in other words.

"Unemployment" in my opinion is a very simple concept. If you are over 16 years old (let's say 18 and give the kids a break) and under 65 years old, can add 1+1 and come up with 2, walk, talk, breathe and consume food, and are otherwise not truly disabled...then you ARE a part of the potential workforce, PERIOD! Just because our central planners have set up a system where you can sit on your ass and collect a check each month for whatever program whether it be food stamps, rent, etc. and you can "get by" and survive so you don't "have to" and aren't looking for a job, doesn't mean that you're no longer "part of the workforce". YOU ARE!

The real unemployment number in the U.S. is probably very close to Spain's 24%, 1 in 4. The headline number is bogus, it has been bogus for years so I am not picking on Mr. Obama. The numbers have been fudged, massaged and the method of calculating changed since probably just after the Eisenhower years, they are bogus as are all of the other statistics we are fed. Does it feel to you like "things are better" than they were 4 years ago? 10 years ago? 20? I know, it doesn't does it. On the track that we are on now, at some glorious point in the future, the unemployment rate will be zero, the labor force participation rate will be zero and the amount of truly employed workers will be zero! No one will work, no one will look for work and everyone will get a monthly check for not working. Truly Utopia! Have a nice weekend, Bill H.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
John Williams’ latest report guarantees QE to infinity. They will even deny what they are doing when they announce they are doing it.
- For Second Month, Household-Survey Employment Fell as Payroll Growth Faltered
- April Unemployment: 8.1% (U.3), 14.5% (U.6), 22.3% (SGS)
- Annual M3 Growth Weakened in April as Velocity Rose
- New Indicator Shows Intensifying Systemic Stress
- Impaired Construction Spending Continued

There Are 100 Million Working Age Americans That Do Not Have Jobs

The unemployment crisis in America is much worse than you are being told.  Did you know that there are 100 million working age Americans that do not get up in the morning and go to work?  No wonder why it seems like there are so many people that do not have jobs!  According to the federal government, there are 12.6 million working age Americans that are considered to be "officially" unemployed, but there are another 87.8 million working age Americans that are not working either.  The federal government considers those Americans to be "not in the labor force" so they are not included in the unemployment rate.  In fact, this is one of the key ways that the government manipulates the unemployment numbers.  The Obama administration would have us believe that the unemployment rate is going down and that that since the start of the last recession about as many Americans have left the labor force as we saw during the entire decades of the 1980s and 1990s combined.  Of course that is a bunch of nonsense, but that is what the Obama administration would have us believe.  The truth is that the percentage of working age Americans that are employed is just about the same right now as it was two years ago.  It was incredibly difficult to get a job back then and it is incredibly difficult to get a job right now.  So don't believe the hype that things are getting much better.  If you still do have a good job, you might want to hold on to it tightly, because there is not much hope that things are going to improve significantly any time soon.


What if the unemployment rate fell from 8.1% to 8.2%, and nobody believed it?  Nobody, not even the mainstream media...

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