Tuesday, July 7, 2009

In A World Of Fiction, The TRUTH Is Cast Adrift

“Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, it’s electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes, at essentially no cost.We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."
- Ben Bernanke

Obama Advisor: 2009 Deficit Likely Worse Than Planned
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--The U.S. government's budget deficit will likely be wider than expected this year, a top White House advisor said Tuesday.

Speaking at an economic conference in Singapore, Laura Tyson, a member of President Barack Obama's Economic Advisory Panel, said the U.S. economy faces a worse situation than previously believed, and the deficit - already the widest since World War II - may surpass a previous projection of around 12% of gross domestic product.
Tyson said, however, her remarks represent her own views and not the administration's official position.

"The government is taking (the economic crisis) as a war," Tyson said.

She said the current U.S. stimulus package is of an appropriate size and includes "a significant amount of investment in long-term growth." But a second stimulus package, with an emphasis on infrastructure, may be needed to put the U.S. economy on the right track, she said.

She added that the current stimulus package should create or sustain 3.5 million jobs, as planned, but its effect on unemployment will be less than previously expected because the crisis has had a greater impact on unemployment than anticipated.

"The question is whether the U.S. economy has reached a level of stabilization yet, but the recent unemployment numbers tell me it hasn't," she said. "Businesses are likely to rehire employees at a slower pace than in the previous two recessions, so unemployment is going to be a lagging indicator."

And once again we were treated to a Precious Metals Market of PURE BULLSHIT. The mere suggestion of a "second stimulus package" should have sent the US Dollar reeling today, and Gold soaring as America's Debt Bomb explodes. It certainly dealt a blow to the equities markets as the traders there begin to see the handwriting on the wall:

"The green shoots are weeds".

The idea of another stimulus package affected the equities markets today as if it were a 10-gallon drum of Round-up. The realization that the much promised "second half recovery' was nothing but talk designed to assuage the public's confidence in the financial system has exposed the recent market rally for what it really was, a sucker punch.

The Great Lie of 2009: “A Recovery Is Around The Corner”
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
On March 15, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told CBS News’ “60 Minutes” that he detected “green shoots” in the economy. And every day since, economic soothsayers have been surveying the landscape, sifting through crops of weeds, trying to find those green shoots.

By late April, famous Wall Street gurus were lining up to declare “the end of the bear market,” and every day since, brokers have been cajoling you to buy the very same stocks they want to sell.

In early June, Obama labor officials declared “a big turnaround in nation’s job market,” proudly announcing that “only” 345,000 jobs were eliminated in May.

We immediately issued a report demonstrating these numbers were extremely deceptive. Even if you accepted them at face value, we said, “less bad news” and “slower disasters” are not exactly signs of a turnaround.

And now, with the new government data released Thursday, their thesis is already being proven dead wrong.

One week ago, California officials publicly declared that they would never default on their obligations, directly refuting the forecast of default I made in this column on June 22: According to the BusinessJournal, Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for state Treasurer Bill Lockyer told the press “Mr. Weiss’ analysis and recommendation, to put it kindly, is misinformed.”

Just two days later, California defaulted on its short-term debt obligations to countless vendors and taxpayers, unilaterally issuing millions of dollars in i.o.u.’s that no one wanted and few financial institutions accepted.

These examples barely scratch the surface of the misconceptions, distortions and outright deceptions that are being perpetrated by high authorities, flooded through the media and used to permeate the American psyche — all the while ignoring the elephant in the room …

The Giant Accumulation of High-Risk
Debts and Bets Called “Derivatives”

The nation’s mountain of derivatives is not a mirage on the future horizon. Nor is it merely a phenomenon of our distant past.

It’s real. It’s here. And it’s huge.

Just ten months ago, it reared its ugly head and shoved the U.S. and Europe to the brink of a global meltdown.

And just last week, the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued its latest report showing that, despite all the talk of reducing risk and reforming the financial system, U.S. commercial banks still hold record amounts. The latest tally: $202 TRILLION in notional value derivatives. And even that pales in comparison to the global tally by the Bank of International Settlements, now at $592 trillion.


You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. The Day Of Reckoning has arrived. "Less bad" is NOT growth no matter how you spin it and try to con the public. "Less bad" does not a recovery make. The bottom line is the financial crisis is STILL bad, and getting worse. All the "blah-blah" from Bumbling Ben Bernanke's mouth is NOT going to change that. "Hope" is NOT going to change it either. There will be NO recovery until ALL hope is lost, and the US Federal Reserve is destroyed. To suggest otherwise is only perpetuating the CON, giving life to the lie we call the US DOLLAR.

Dollar's Days of Dominance Are Over
By, Jeff Nielson
India commemorated the 4th of July by joining China and Russia in announcing they were seeking “alternatives” to the U.S. dollar (as “reserve currency”). With yet one more “prop” removed from the gangrenous greenback, this left only the submissive Japanese as the last major holder of U.S. dollars who strongly supports its continued status.

Bloomberg reported Saturday that the economic advisor to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has publicly and explicitly recommended that India reduce the U.S. dollar component of its currency reserves. “The major part of India reserves [totaling $264 billion] is in U.S. dollars – that is something that's a problem for us,” said Suresh Tendulkar.

These remarks come only one day after China's former Vice Premier, Zeng Peiyan stated, “There should be a system to maintain the stability of the major reserve currencies.”

Several comments need to be made with reference to this remark. First, China commonly uses “voices” of those associated to but not in the government to indirectly reveal its thoughts on issues. Thus the fact that Zeng is a former Vice Premier should not be taken to mean that his remark is not indicative of the position of the Chinese government.

Second, there were two subtleties which should cause Americans (and the Obama regime) serious concern. First, Zeng spoke of “major reserve currencies” - making it explicitly clear that he (and China) no longer consider the dollar the sole “reserve currency” today. The other point to ponder is Zeng's reference of a “system to maintain stability” in currency markets. The U.S. dollar was that system.

There is much more at stake here than economic prestige. As the Obama regime floods the world with trillions of dollars more in U.S. Treasuries, the Federal Reserve has already been forced to buy-up a significant part of those Treasuries (i.e. monetizing debt). Monetizing debt alone guarantees the steady decline of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies (with the exception of the British pound and Japanese yen) because other economies have not been weakened to the point of such desperation.

However, as major economies continue diversification out of the U.S. dollar, even as economic growth in these other countries produces growing budget surpluses once again, few if any of those surpluses will be channeled into U.S. dollars.

The process is already well underway. China alone has engaged in currency swaps and trade agreements which by itself, reduces the demand for U.S. dollars by hundreds of BILLIONS per year. Many other countries are also engaged in similar measures – with varying speeds.

Countries either indifferent or antagonistic to the U.S. (Russia, Iran and Venzuela) come to mind, are already well-advanced in practically eliminating the use of dollar in their foreign trade. However, even many of the U.S.'s “allies” (with the Western-dominated Persian Gulf countries coming to mind) are also well down the path of reducing the U.S. dollar to merely one of their major currency holdings.

Indeed, the combination of rapid, extreme dilution of the U.S. dollar, along with rapidly diminishing demand mean there is no “floor” visible for the dollar – at any price level.

Keep in mind that due to the success of the U.S.'s relentless propaganda-machine, most other countries are just beginning to comprehend the dynamics of the U.S.'s unsupportable debts. As that awareness grows, the decline of the U.S. dollar is certain to accelerate rapidly.

And yet, despite growing economic desperation, and a global call to seek alternatives to the Dollar, the Dollar clung to the all important 80 handle on the USD Index. Fueled by misguided "safe-haven" buying as the global equity markets rolled over exposing the fallacy of their recent rallies, the Dollar's strength once again supposedly blocked a rise in Gold.

How Long Can the US-Dollar Defy the Law of Gravity?
By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends
In the midst of the longest and deepest, post World-War II recession, America’s financial position with the rest of the world has deteriorated sharply. Three decades of massive trade deficits have turned the United States from the world’s top lender to the world’s largest debtor, - and dependent upon the whims of the so-called emerging nations, laden with huge foreign currency reserves, to finance the bailout of Wall Street Oligarchs, and President Barack Obama’s social programs.

Foreigners own roughly half of the US-government’s publicly traded debt, or $3.47-trillion, representing nearly 25% of the size of the US-economy, the highest level in history. If foreign lenders were to significantly reduce their purchases of US-Treasury notes, without even dumping their current holdings, US long-term interest rates could zoom higher, and the US-dollar could crumble.

That would deal a double whammy to the US-economy. Higher yields on Treasury debt could translate into higher mortgage borrowing rates for homebuyers, - weighing on the housing market, while a weaker US-dollar could lift the price of crude oil to above $70 per barrel, inducing an “Oil Shock” to the world economy. This nightmare scenario has been relegated to the den of doomsayers and fear mongrels, yet is starting to become an increasingly realistic proposition.

Increasingly, some of the biggest foreign lenders to the US Treasury, such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Qatar, are grumbling aloud, about the endless string of trillion dollar US-budget deficits projected in the years ahead. Lenders are crying foul over the Federal Reserve’s radical experiment with “Quantitative Easing” (QE) - the printing vast quantities of US-dollars, and monetizing the US-government’s debt.

“America, through this financial crisis, is accumulating a huge amount of debt. It’s a heavy burden on the US-dollar,” warned Jassem al-Mannai, chief of the Abu Dhabi-based Arab Monetary Fund on June 28th. “You have China and Russia proposing an international reserve currency other than the US-dollar. These developments could affect negatively the dollar, and you cannot just ignore them,” he warned.

“We have lent a massive amount of capital to the United States, and of course we are concerned about the security of our assets,” warned Chinese PM Wen Jiaboa on March 13th. To speak truthfully, I do indeed have some worries. So I call on the United States to maintain its creditworthiness, and abide by its commitments and insure the security of China’s assets. We have already adopted a management policy of diversifying our ($2-trillion) foreign exchange reserves,” Wen warned.


What can ever beat the gold and silver cartel?
By: Adrian Douglas
The forces that will bring down the precious metals cartel are the forces of supply and demand that have governed economics throughout history.

Paper supply can mimic real supply for quite some time but not forever. The price of gold and silver are set on the Comex futures exchange. The promise to deliver gold and silver in the future can easily swamp the future demand for gold and silver precisely because it is in the future. Investors cannot overpower the cartel in this quaint game of poker because the cartel always has enough fiat money to go "all in" and bluff the long investors.

However, the cartel cannot win this game in the physical market and the front month or cash market of the futures market. For no matter how much fiat money you can produce, it will never be real physical metal.

The world is moving into Weimar-style fiat money creation and the leading culprit is the United States. In this environment investors will take no substitute for gold and silver. They want the real metal. Even foreign central banks such as those in China, Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela are buying physical gold.

The cartel has been using some real gold to leverage its paper gold sales. This is like fractional reserves in banking, where you hope that no more than 10 percent of customers ask for their money.

In the futures and derivatives markets 1 tonne of gold can back 100 tonnes of paper gold sales because only 1 percent of these sales require real metal to be delivered. The market price responds as if 100 tonnes of gold have been sold, not just 1 tonne.

But as more investors want real metal, the leverage of paper becomes impotent. From my work and much of the work of others in GATA there are strong indications that we are getting close to a default in providing real metal. At that point the game will be over, the physical shortage will be clear to everyone, and the price will rocket.


Oil, Gas Market Speculation May Face Restrictions
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators say they may clamp down on oil and gas price speculators by limiting the holdings of energy futures traders, including index and exchange-traded funds.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold hearings this month and next to explore the need for government-imposed restrictions on speculative trading in oil, gas and other energy markets, Chairman
Gary Gensler said today in a statement.

“Our first hearing will focus on whether federal speculative limits should be set by the CFTC to all commodities of finite supply, in particular energy commodities such as crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, gasoline and other energy products,” Gensler said in the statement. “This will include a careful review of the appropriateness of exemptions from these limits for various types of market participants.”

“The CFTC currently sets and ensures adherence to position limits with respect to certain agriculture products,” Gensler said in the statement. “For energy commodities, futures exchanges set position limits and accountability levels to protect against manipulation and congestion. The exchanges are not required to set and enforce position limits to prevent the burdens of excessive speculation.”

Gensler said the CFTC is reviewing exemptions from position limits for “bona fide hedging,” after seeking public comment on whether the exemption should continue to apply to traders who are in the market for financial reasons, rather than those that actually use the commodity.

The chairman also said the agency was going to improve its weekly commitment of traders’ reports by separating out swaps dealers and hedge funds from the larger category of “commercial” traders. The agency will continue to collect and report data from swaps dealers and index investors, extending a “special call” from last year, Gensler said.

“Enhancing the quality of information in these weekly reports will better inform market participants and the public about the positions of the various types of traders,” he said.


Goldman May Lose Millions From Ex-Worker’s Code Theft
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may lose its investment in a proprietary trading code and millions of dollars from increased competition if software allegedly stolen by a former employee gets into the wrong hands, a prosecutor said.

Sergey Aleynikov, a 39-year-old ex-Goldman Sachs computer programmer, was arrested July 3 after arriving at Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, U.S. officials said. Aleynikov, a citizen of America and Russia who joined the bank in 2007, is charged in a criminal complaint with stealing the trading software. Teza Technologies LLC, a Chicago-based firm co-founded by a former Citadel Investment Group LLC trader, said it suspended Aleynikov, who started there on July 2.

At a court appearance July 4 in Manhattan, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti told a federal judge that Aleynikov’s alleged theft -- the largest breach at Goldman Sachs -- poses a risk to U.S. markets. Aleynikov transferred the code, worth millions of dollars, to a computer server in Germany, and others may have had access to it, Facciponti said, adding that New York-based Goldman Sachs may be harmed if the software is disseminated.

“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public yesterday. “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.”

GATA urges SEC, CFTC to probe Goldman trading program
by: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

GATA today urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. computer trading program that, according to a federal prosecutor, the bank acknowledges can be used to manipulate markets.

GATA's complaint referred to the Bloomberg News story reporting the arraignment in U.S. District Court in New York of a former Goldman Sachs employee accused of stealing the program. The prosecutor, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti, was quoted as telling the court: "The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways."

In letters to the SEC and CFTC, GATA wrote: "The assistant U.S. attorney's comment can be construed to suggest Goldman Sachs considers its own manipulation of markets to be fair, while such manipulation by others would be unfair. The court proceeding described in the Bloomberg News story would seem to impugn all markets in which Goldman Sachs trades."

GATA asked each commission "to investigate Goldman Sachs' trading program urgently and report its findings publicly."

The text of GATA's letters is appended.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

7 Villa Louisa Road, Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

July 7, 2009

Gary Gensler, Chairman
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
3 Lafayette Centre
1155 21st St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20581

Mary L. Schapiro, Chairman
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
100 F St. N.E.
Washington, D.C. 20549

Dear Chairman Gensler / Dear Chairman Schapiro:

I'm enclosing a copy of a report distributed July 6 by Bloomberg News Service about the U.S. government's prosecution of a former employee of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. involving the purported theft of a Goldman Sachs computer trading program. The report quotes Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Faccipointi as saying in U.S. District Court in New York City: "The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways."

If the report quotes the assistant U.S. attorney correctly, and if he was characterizing Goldman Sachs' position correctly, then Goldman Sachs claims to have possession of a computer trading program that can manipulate markets. The assistant U.S. attorney's comment can be construed to suggest Goldman Sachs considers its own manipulation of markets to be fair, while such manipulation by others would be unfair.

The court proceeding described in the Bloomberg News story would seem to impugn all markets in which Goldman Sachs trades. On behalf of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., I ask your commission to investigate Goldman Sachs' trading program urgently and report its findings publicly.

Thanks for your consideration.

With good wishes.


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